我國自民國78年起，陸續推動多項鐵路立體化計畫之建設，鐵路立體化預期可帶來的效益龐大，主要來自於因鐵路阻隔造成的交通壅塞得以舒緩，並進一步導致二氧化碳排放的降低；然而，鐵路高架化可能對於部份區域的交通排放造成負面影響，再加上鐵路高架化的交通改善造成土地使用以及旅運行為的改善，預期將形成整體運輸需求的上昇，長時間下來高架化的興建是否能維持節能減碳之效益，需要更進一步的相關研究。本研究透過運輸規劃模式與排放汙染推估模式的整合，推估區域公路系統產生的二氧化碳污染排放量，進一步評估分析高架化興建對桃園地區汙染排放之影響。交通指派與排放推估的結果顯示，高架化的興建後，短期的觀察對桃園地區整體公路的總排放量有減少之效果，但由於旅次的重新分配造成部分區域增加與部分區域減少的汙染排放分佈改變之情況，其中以高架化橋下新增之廊帶道路周圍增加最為劇烈，因此本研究亦建立移除與改變廊帶道路之其他情境，以比較廊帶道路設計對地區交通的污染排放之影響。另外，考量到交通改善建設計劃對於土地使用以及運輸需求有長遠的影響，本研究假設不同的需求成長率並予以分析，以觀察鐵路高架化建設造成之旅次總量改變對於交通汙染排放之影響。Several railway track elevation projects have been completed in Taiwan since 1989. These projects are highly beneficial because they reduce traffic congestion caused by the barriers of rail tracks. The railway track elevation projects of Taoyuan section has been planned and designed to improve the traffic in Taoyuan County; however, the impact of the railway track elevation project in terms of emissions is still unclear. Moreover, the traffic improvement following the railway track elevation project often leads to significant changes in land development and travel behaviors. Therefore, the transportation demand in Taoyuan County is expected to increase due to the project in the long term. Therefore, this study evaluates the impact of the railway track elevation project in terms of emission reduction in the long termThis study combines transportation planning and emission prediction techniques to estimate CO2 emissions from the road system of Taoyuan County. The objective is to evaluate and analyze the impact of pollutant emissions from the railway track elevation project of Taoyuan section. The result shows that the total CO2 emission is reduced in the short term for the whole county; however, it is also noted that the emission is redistributed after the project is completed and the populated areas near the project suffer the most increase. Scenarios of the road designs are conducted in this study to further analyze the effect of the project plan. Finally, this study considers the increase of transportation demand in the long-term due to the changes in travel behaviors as well as land development, and the results show that the project might have unexpected negative impact in terms of CO2 emission for the county when the total demand increases significantly.
