近年來道路不平整對用路人來講是一個很大的問題，平坦的路面及安全舒適的行駛環境，一直是市民的期望，地方政府為了給用路人提供一個路面平整及行車舒適的環境，而提出了「路平專案」(road-smoothing project)來解決路面不平整的問題，而坑洞又是對用路人影響最大的一項損壞類別，也是最須解決的問題。 本研究就是利用台北市路平專案道路損壞資料中的坑洞(Potholes)資料來分析鋪面(pavement )的「存活時間」，並利用存活分析理論中之Cox等比例危險模式(Cox proportional hazard model)應用於鋪面(pavement )影響因素分析之研究，影響因素分為天候、管制、交通、路面四個面向，透過影響因素的資料整理、模式構建、參數校估及模式配適檢定來找出顯著的影響因素，再透過存活函數的相對風險以及中位存活時間，來觀察解釋變數的改變可以帶來的實際效益，延長路面的使用時間。 結果顯示整體路段的存活函數顯示：75％的路段可存活超過125天，50%的路段可以存活超過316天，僅25%的路段可以存活超過691天。 Cox等比例危險模式應用於鋪面坑洞影響因素經過資料整理、模式構建、參數校估及模式配適檢定後發現，[雨量]、[溫度]、[降雨機率]、[每日日照時數]、[重車禁行]5個解釋變數對模式具有顯著性。In recent years, road irregularity has been a serious problem for the road users. Smooth pavement and a safe and comfortable driving environment are always the citizens' aspirations. So the government proposed a "road-smoothing project” to solve the problem on pavement not smooth. Potholes is the greatest impact damage category for road users, it's also the problem needs to be solved at once.This research is to use the data of Potholes of pavement damage data in the “road-smoothing project” in Taipei City to analyze the pavement of the "survival time". Also, use the theory of survival analysis, Cox proportional hazard model that applied in Pavement factors, there are four factors included weather, control, traffic, road. Through factors data compilation, model construction, parameter calibration and goodness of fit test for the model, and use the Cox model as a model of relative risk and determine the median survival time, then observe the changes in explanatory variables, these can bring real benefits and extend the pavement life.
