| 摘要: | 近年來氣候變異劇烈，極端天氣事件發生的頻率及嚴重程度增加。台灣因地理與地質因素，土石流及洪氾災害潛勢地區遍及全島，而極端氣溫與降雨將加劇災害發生之頻率及規模。因此，針對極端氣候現象於我國河川工程之影響、衝擊提出相因應之調適策略，已為刻不容緩之工作。惟目前未有研究或報告將國內可適用或已使用之調適策略作統整分析。故本研究蒐集國內外文獻並透過專家訪談進行收斂，彙整分析極端氣候現象、影響與衝擊，進而提出河川工程之調適策略。最後，本研究採用模糊德菲法將策略篩選，得到工程之規劃設計階段有14項策略，施工階段有3項策略，營運維護階段有12項策略，冀望能提供給國內工程人員及相關研究人員作參考。 本研究透過文獻蒐集及專家訪談方式，將極端氣候現象對我國河川工程造成之衝擊分為四大面向－「洪水防護」、「土砂管理」、「水資源管理」、「海岸防護」，並且限制研究於洪水防護及土砂管理問題作調適策略之探討。針對各項衝擊，本研究蒐集國內外河川工程可適用或已使用之調適策略文獻，依據工程生命週期階段進行分類，而後透過專家訪談確認調適策略內容。由模糊德菲策略篩選結果得知，本研究提出可因應極端氣候衝擊，並且考量技術、社會、制度複雜度等因素後於現在或未來可行之河川工程調適策略共二十九項。由模糊德菲策略篩選得知，重要策略包括「順應自然水理之規劃設計」、「流域洪水分擔」、「增加通洪斷面」、「土地使用管制」、「召開地方說明會並使民眾建立正確防災避災觀念」、「強化疏散與避難措施」、「加強防災預警，改善發布資訊品質」、「落實環境基礎調查及更新災害潛勢資料，並規劃更新水位預警及應變機制」。顯示面對極端氣候衝擊，目前國內河川之排洪能力多已達到極限。過去只靠工程方法將洪水快速排入河川及以築堤束堤之治水思維，勢必已無法因應未來之極端降雨情形。因此流域整體治理及土地管制為當今風氣。國內河川工程除須持續完成常備性工程設施外，改善防災預警及發布資訊品質也是必要手段。另外，可配合召開地方說明會促使民眾建立正確防災避災觀念。而在災害過後，各項基礎建設應儘速回復正常，這才是未來積極因應極端氣候事件的新思維。In Taiwan, the debris flow and flood disasters potential area are all over the island, and extreme temperature and rainfall will exacerbate the frequency and scale of disasters. However, no studies or reports integrate Taiwan river engineering adaptation strategies. Therefore, the objective of this research is to find out the extreme weather impacts on Taiwan river engineering, and then integrate the adaptation strategies.In this study, through literature search and expert interviews, the impact of river project caused by extreme weather events is divided into four issues- flood protection, sediment management, water resources management, coastal protection. This study limits the adaptation strategies’ scope in flood protection and sediment management issues. After categorized the strategies into lifecycle and Fuzzy Delphi screening, there are 14 strategies in planning and design phase, 3 strategies in the construction phase, and 12 strategies in the operational maintenance phase. The important strategies include “ natural stream planning and design”, “detention basin”, “increase Channel Cross-Section”, “land use control", "held a local description and enable people to establish a correct concept of disaster prevention”, “evacuation strategies”," strengthen prevention and early warning, improved dissemination of information quality "," update the water level warning and response mechanism”. Nowadays, extreme weather event is unavoidable, so we have to be positive to face the extreme weather impacts. We should use both structural and nonstructural measures for river engineering. This study results show that comprehensive control and management is important, and we have to improve disaster warning. At the same time, in addition to construct river activities, rebuilding after disaster is also important. |
