應用衛星資料估算之熱力參數與ECMWF再分析資料監測西北太平洋熱帶氣旋生成;Monitoring Tropical Cyclone Formation in the Northwest Pacific with Satellite-Derived Thermal Parameter and ECMWF Reanalysis Data

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题名:	應用衛星資料估算之熱力參數與ECMWF再分析資料監測西北太平洋熱帶氣旋生成;Monitoring Tropical Cyclone Formation in the Northwest Pacific with Satellite-Derived Thermal Parameter and ECMWF Reanalysis Data
作者:	謝珮倫;Hsieh,Pei-lun
贡献者:	大氣物理研究所
关键词:	預報得分;衛星遙測;颱風;熱帶氣旋;Skill score;Remote sensing;Tropical cyclone formation;Typhoon
日期:	2012-07-26
上传时间:	2012-09-11 18:25:03 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	熱帶氣旋生命期大多發生於洋面上，故衛星遙測資料有助於熱帶氣旋監測。前人研究曾利用SSM/I微波資料與QuikSCAT風速風向資料建立熱力與動力指標以監測南海及西北太平洋區域熱帶氣旋之生成，其準確預報率很高，惟未進一步量化分析是否有誤判情況發生，故本研究參考Schumacher et al. (2009)分析方法，使用六項熱帶氣旋生成判斷條件，以逐步去除不利其生成位置，期望得到較準確且誤判率較少的熱帶氣旋可能生成區域。　　本研究選用2001～2008年西北太平洋地區204個熱帶氣旋個案，以其中2/3個案建立熱帶氣旋生成條件，其餘1/3個案則做為驗證，再以2009年與2010兩年獨立個案進行分析。本研究挑選850hPa渦度閾值、850hPa渦度差異場、合成熱能閾值、合成熱能差異場、海表面溫度以及500hPa、700hPa、850hPa三個壓力層的相對溼度等六種判斷條件做為颱風生成的指標，並以預報得分進行評估。由2001～2008年1/3個案驗證結果顯示，使用4.5°×4.5°監測方框與滿足任五種熱帶氣旋生成判斷條件監測熱帶氣旋生成為較佳組合，可成功預測熱帶氣旋生成位置的比率約為60%，誤報生成位置的比率則為5%～6%；2009年個案分析顯示成功預報率約為50%，略低於2001～2008年之預報結果；然而2010年的14個TS個案則因有6個個案生成於陸地附近海域，導致其預報準確度明顯降低。進一步分析顯示本研究預報方法的準確度皆優於氣候法與使用曾（2010）研究閾值之預報結果。　　The lifecycle of tropical cyclones mostly occur over the open ocean. Therefore, satellite remote sensing data is a viable tool for detecting the development of tropical cyclones. Some researches have employed SSM/I microwave satellite data to derive the heat energy. Meanwhile, QuikSCAT satellite data have been employed to derive the wind field data in establishing the thermal and vorticity thresholds, and monitoring the formation of tropical cyclones in Northwest Pacific and South China Sea. In previous studies, although the predictions of tropical cyclone formations were accurately made, there were also many false alarms. As a result, this study will use 6 different tropical cyclone formation parameters ( vorticity threshold, vorticity difference, thermal energy threshold, thermal energy difference, sea surface temperature and relative humidity) to remove the highly unfavorable tropical cyclone formation areas in attempting to find the probabilistic formation area of tropical cyclones.　　This study selected 204 tropical cyclones cases during 2001-2008 in the Northwest Pacific. Two-thirds of these cases are used to establish the formation thresholds, while the remaining one-third is regarded as dependant cases for verification. Separately, 28 independent cases during 2009-2010 were used for verification. The skill score results show that utilization of the 5 formation parameters and 4.5 degree detecting was suitable for monitoring tropical cyclone formation. The prediction accuracy reached 60% and 5-6% for the false alarm ratio in 2001-2008. In 2009, the prediction accuracy reached 50%, which was smaller than dependant cases. However in 2010, as 6 cases formed near island, the prediction accuracy was lower in contrast to other years. Compared with Climatology and the method of Tzeng (2010), this study is shown to have a better prediction accuracy in tropical cyclone formation.
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