一直以來，企業之經營危機向來為管理階層及從事企管相關學者所重視及研究。自 Foulke(1930)提倡「實用性驗證主義」之後，開始有學者以財務比率對企業未來經營成敗之 預測能力進行實證研究，部份學者亦對企業經營危機提出管理及應變之道。 本研究以87 年國內上市營造公司為研究對象，並利用財務指標進行分析及探討，以了 解國內多家營造公司於87 年接連爆發財務危機之情形。主要分為二部份，第一部份為探討 上市營造公司發生財務危機時之主因及危機類型，以及財務指標是否呈現出某種特殊態 樣。第二部份乃以第一部份歸納出之危機類型，提出各類型進行危機管理之調整策略。 本研究經由實際財務資料分析，並配合專家訪談得到如下結論： 一、87 年上市營建業公司爆發財務危機者，探究其主要原因為業外投資不當。經過個案財 務比率及相關資料之研究，將六家危機建設公司歸納出五大危機類型(表4-13)及三種 財務指標惡化態樣(表4-14)，分別為投機利己型、短線釣魚型、急功好利型、內憂外 患型及脣亡齒寒型。營造廠僅一家危機公司及態樣，為好大喜功型(表4-22)。 二、此波營建業財務危機公司包含建築業及營造業共七家，觀察87 年以前之獲利能力及 財務表現，可發現其中僅二家建設公司在危機發生前，本業獲利偏低且可明顯看出經 營上之問題，其餘皆優於產業中位數，甚至存在獲利及經營績效名列前矛者。故可知 營建公司之財務危機和一般認知情形不同，須注意平時獲利良好之績優公司，亦可能 因一時業外投資不當，而瞬間惡化公司財務體質並引發財務危機。 三、因此波危機個案之財務指標，多數在危機發生前不具一致性逐年惡化現象，故不宜以 過去文獻採用之統計方法建立財務危機預警模式。 四、本研究中對營建公司多項重點財務指標有較深入之探討及說明，除為了解營建業財務 危機之實際情形及特性，亦可作為財務分析人員或學術研究者參考之用，以求全面評 估及分析營建公司之財務體質健全性。 Business crises have always been the focal point of financial analysis. In Taiwan's construction industry, the past few years have seen a considerable number of firms ceased to function due to poor financial practices. Based on financial reports of these troubled firms, the study intends to extract lessons learned, which will be used as a reference to the peer firms. This study is divided into two stages. First, inferencing is exercised for understanding the key factors amounting to a business crisis in those troubled firms. An effort is also extended to analyze and characterize the patterns of their crises. Then, recommendations based on interviews with domain experts are given to each type of crisis for betterment. These recommendations are designed according to a pre-determined knowledge frame for ease of understanding and adoption. The study has arrived at three key parts of conclusions, including briefly: 1. The main cause for business crisis in the construction industry in the past few years has been a malpractice of external re-investment or corporate diversification. 2. The five patterns of business crisis distinguish themselves from all previously mentioned types, in that established analytic models are inaccurate in prediction. 3. Based on this study, the degradation of financial health may come as quickly as within a year. Therefore, analysis based on time-series methods may not be appropriate.
