本研究為一個三年期研究計畫，旨在建立一套適合台灣地震與地質特性之土壤液化引致地震損失之評估模式與方法，以供各界參考，作為地震風險評估及控制之用。本研究上年度已結合地震危害度分析、土壤液化可靠度分析以及地盤液化變形與損害指標，建立一套本土性之土壤液化危害度分析方法，可以評估場址液化沈陷與側向變位之年超越機率。本年度將以中央大學離心機上之振動台進行模型試驗，並以有效應力分析法進行數值模型試驗，求得液化地盤變形大小與建築物損害狀態之關係，並探討各種因素對此關係之影響，建立土壤液化不同基礎型式建築物之易損性曲線。下一年度則以921 集集地震員林鎮液化建築物損害案例為例，進行土壤液化地震損失評估與驗證工作，其中驗證比較工作包括建物損害狀態分佈、建築物損害估計、不同基礎型式之影響、大區域與小區域分析的差異，與及逐孔分析與以統計值分析之差別。用以校核與改進所發展的方法，最後建議一套本土化且具實用性之土壤液化建築物損失評估模式與方法。 ; This research is a three-year project aiming to develop a methodology to estimate the earthquake loss due to liquefaction-induced building damage considering the local earthquake and geotechnical characteristics. We hope the proposed methodology can be used in estimating and controlling earthquake risk by Taiwan engineering community. In the first year (last year) of this study, a liquefaction hazard analysis method (LHA) will be established by combining the elements of earthquake hazard analysis (SHA), reliability analysis of soil liquefaction, and the liquefaction-induced ground deformation and hazard indexes. The LHA can be used to estimate the annual probabilities of exceedance of any liquefaction-induced ground deformations at a site. In the second year (this year), a shaking table mounted on the centrifuge at National Central University will be used to conducted model tests and numerical model tests based on effective stress analysis will also be performed together to derive the relationship between the liquefaction-induced ground deformation and the building damage state. A series of model tests will be planned to investigate the factors that influence the relationship and set up the standard fragility curves of the buildings with different types of foundations. In the third year (next year), the building damages due to soil liquefaction at Yunlin Town during the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake will be used to verify the result of liquefaction-induced building damage loss estimated by the proposed methodology. The comparison will focus on : total building damage loss, the distribution of building states, the influence of building foundation type, the difference of regional and local area analysis ,and the discrepancies between the analyses using geological data by-hole and by statistics. These results have to be fed back the proposed methodology and improve it accordingly. Finally, we will propose a native and practical earthquake loss estimation methodology due to soil liquefaction. ; 研究期間 9708 ~ 9807
