本研究計畫－「台灣區域之動力--統計預報模式：旬到月預報」是「伴隨短期氣候變化的極端天氣預報技術發展」整合型計畫的第六子計畫。本計畫基本的策略是從此發展出真正對短期氣候平均狀態有相當預報能力的統計預報模式開始，然後再進一步的去發展出可以包含天氣變異訊息的短期統計預報模式。更長程的目標是嘗試發展出結合動力和統計模式預報產品所建構的可以適當的提供預報期間天氣狀況可能變化的台灣與東亞地區的旬到月的動力-統計預報模式。本計畫預計分三年執行。我們已在第一年計畫執行時發展出Bernoulli 預報模式。初步結果顯示此模式可以有效的提升對於短期(一至三個月)海溫的預報技術。未來一年，我們將從兩個方向繼續Bernoulli 預報模式的發展。一方面是套用既有的模式在不同的氣候變數與時間尺度以評估其適用的範圍；另一方面則是發展多變數的Bernoulli 預報模式來常是進一步提升其預報能力。到了第三年，我們預期將研究重點放在發展出可以包含天氣變異訊息的短期統計預報模式。 ; “The development of dynamical-statistical prediction model for Taiwan area: pentad to month prediction”is the sixth subproject of the “Analysis/prediction of extreme weather associated with short-term climate variability in East Asia”integrated project. The main purpose of this project is to develop a suitable dynamical-statistical forecast model for pentad to monthly in Taiwan area. In the first year, we have developed a Bernoulli prediction model that has the capability to improve short leads climate forecast skill. In the following year, we shall continue the development of the Bernoulli model. The main goals are (1) to explore the model’s range of applicability, and (2) to develop a multivariate Bernoulli prediction model to further improve the short leads climate forecast skill. In the third year, we shall focus on developing a suitable model for pentad to monthly prediction in Taiwan area that includes weather variability information. We believe that this study will make significant contribution to the improvement and usefulness of short range climate forecast in this region. ; 研究期間 9708 ~ 9807
