防災避難疏散作業最佳決策模式之研究

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题名:	防災避難疏散作業最佳決策模式之研究
作者:	林靖亞;Lin,Ching-ya
贡献者:	土木工程學系在職專班
关键词:	避難疏散;集結點;最佳化;整數規劃;disaster evacuation;assembly points;optimization;integer
日期:	2013-07-25
上传时间:	2013-08-22 11:35:43 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	我國位處西太平洋颱風區，近百年來平均每年遭受三點六次颱風侵襲，新竹市位於台灣西北半邊，西臨台灣海峽，夏、秋兩季颱風經常侵襲帶來豪雨，歷年所造成災害即以颱洪為主要災害。依據「新竹市因應天然災害緊急疏散撤離及收容安置計畫」，如何於水災時能以最短時間執行災民緊急疏散撤離及收容安置成為值得研究的議題。本研究以新竹市災害應變中心，指揮調度避難疏散車輛由出發點至避難集結點載送災民至避難收容場所，最後返回出發點為研究範圍。建立一套以整數規劃為架構之數學最佳化模式，將資料以Microsoft Excel 2010軟體方式輸入LINGO 8.0套裝軟體求解，可得最短避難疏散時間，並可因應不同程度淹水潛勢，隨時調整及設定參數，迅速重新檢視所需最短避難疏散時間。為驗證模式之合理性及適用性，本研究以450公厘平均日累積降雨量之淹水可能造成之災害境況為範例測試，測試結果與人工經驗決策方式比較，顯示效益更佳。故本研究可靈活運用於水災實務中防災避難疏散決策問題，以提供決策者掌握災變疏散作業時序之重要參考。關鍵字：避難疏散、集結點、最佳化、整數規劃。 In the past century, countries located in the western Pacific typhoon zone have suffered three to six times the average number of typhoons annually. In Hsinchu City in northwestern Taiwan facing the Taiwan Strait, summer and autumn typhoons often bring heavy rains and are the main cause of flood disasters. How to plan for emergency evacuation and refugee resettlement in the shortest possible time are issues worthy of study. In this study, the framework for a mathematical optimization model is designed, based upon Microsoft Excel 2010’s LINGO 8.0 software, to obtain the shortest evacuation time, in response to different levels of flood potential. Parameters can be adjusted and set parameters for rapid re-examination of the shortest evacuation time.To verify the reasonableness and applicability of the model, this study uses an example with 450 mm of average rainfall accumulation which could cause the flooding. Comparison of the test results with results made using the current experience-based method show that our model is more efficient. It can be flexibly applied to flood disaster prevention evacuation decision problems, in order to help decision-makers grasp the disaster evacuation operation times.Keywords: disaster evacuation, assembly points, optimization, integer
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