應用存活分析法於公路長隧道事故分析之研究; Applying Survival Analysis Method to Analysis of Long Road Tunnel Accident

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題名:	應用存活分析法於公路長隧道事故分析之研究;Applying Survival Analysis Method to Analysis of Long Road Tunnel Accident
作者:	林立章;Lin,Li Zhang
貢獻者:	土木工程學系
關鍵詞:	公路長隧道;隧道安全;公路隧道規範;存活分析法;Cox等比例危險模式;long road tunnell;tunnel safety;road tunnel specification;survival analysis;Cox proportional hazards mode
日期:	2013-07-25
上傳時間:	2013-08-22 11:36:41 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	台灣主要地形為高山、丘陵，受到地形影響造成東、西部兩邊經濟發展有明顯落差，政府為了讓東、西部能夠均衡發展，已開拓多條東西向的快速道路與高速公路，但整體仍因高山地形的阻擋，必須以挖掘山脈建造隧道之方式來修築公路。另外台灣公路在2005年開始八卦山隧道及雪山隧道接連陸續通車後，開始進入公路長隧道時代。回顧國外公路長隧道所發生的重大事故可知，在隧道內事故救援處理上會受到封閉性影響，與一般開放路段相較之下救援上較為困難，尤其發生火災事故時，更容易會造成嚴重的人命傷亡及財務損失。為了避免國內隧道發生類似嚴重事故，因此藉由過去公路隧道內所發生的事故資料，並利用存活理論來分析事故間隔時間，將隧道內可能影響用路人造成事故的變數分為「隧道幾何特性」、「隧道交通特性」、「交通控制設施」三大類，並參考公路隧道相關規範來定義影響變數，最後由以上三大類共10項變數來建構Cox等比例模式，經過參數校估、模式配適檢定及等比例檢定來找出顯著變數。研究結果顯示公路隧道有25％事故的間隔天數超過81天、50％事故的間隔天數超過39天、75％事故的間隔天數超過14天，經由檢定後最後得到「隧道長度」、「每日重車流量」、「重車管制」、「速限可變標誌」為等變數對Cox模式具有顯著性的，表示以上變數可以有效解釋在隧道內發生事故的間隔時間。 Based on the main terrain of Taiwan (mountains, hills, topographic), the economic development has obviously gap between east and west side. In order to balance the economic development on both sides of Taiwan, government has developing numbers of highways and speed roads. Even though, the comprehensive development still possess barriers which government has to open-up tunnels for more roads construction. Besides, since 2005, the era of long road tunnels has begun by continually tunnels opening such as the tunnels of Baguashan and Hsuehshan Tunnel which increase the general risk of traffic accidents in tunnel of Taiwan. According to overseas traffic accident cases of tunnels, it will be more difficult to evacuate the accident in tunnel than the accident on the road because of the closure terrain. The traffic accident in tunnel usually could cause seriously humanity and financial damage. In order to avoid the occurrence of serious accident in tunnel, this thesis would not only reference on the past database of traffic accidents, but also use the theory of survival analysis to analyze the interval periods of accident in tunnel to seek for the variables which cause the accidents. Those variables could be classified to three categories, ‘tunnel geometric design’, ‘tunnel traffic’, and ‘traffic control facilities’. The variables would usually use with the regulations of the usage of road to define and come out the final variables and contrast to Cox model. From the research of accident in tunnels, there are 25% chance over 81 days of next accident happen and 50% chance over 39 days and 75% chance over 14 days. The final examination came out the results of tunnel length, daily heavy traffic, heavy vehicle control, and variable speed limit signs which possess prominence demonstration to Cox model and also could be explain effectively to the interval period of accident in tunnels.
顯示於類別:	[土木工程研究所] 博碩士論文

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