考量可觀測與潛在變項之運具選擇行為 -以西部中長程城際運具為例

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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/60449

Title:	考量可觀測與潛在變項之運具選擇行為 -以西部中長程城際運具為例
Authors:	董霈霖;Tung,Pei-Lin
Contributors:	土木工程學系
Keywords:	多項羅吉特模式;巢式羅吉特模式;潛類選擇模式;因素分析;服務品質;Multinomial logit;nested logit;latent class;factor analysis;service quality
Date:	2013-07-16
Issue Date:	2013-08-22 11:37:43 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	在高鐵通車後改變了西部城際運輸市場之運具分佈情形，又面臨能源問題的影響，各運具提供高品質服務及保有自己優勢以滿足旅運者的需求就顯得更重要。所以想研究運具選擇的因素，除了以往所考慮的旅行時間、旅行成本、班距等因素之外，由於個別旅運者對服務品質的認知皆不盡相同，且這些影響運具選擇之心理因素皆為不易量化因子，因此本研究以因素分析來衡量無法量化的潛在變數，再將此隱藏變數連結於個體選擇模式中，視為一新解釋變數來探討對運具選擇行為之影響。個人偏好異質性與運具服務品質也將是在城際運輸發展中影響旅運者運具選擇之重要因素，故本研究將分析旅運者之個人偏好對運具服務品質的感受影響其運具選擇之行為。本研究針對以台北至台中、台北至高雄的中長程旅次之600位旅運者為實證研究對象。先以因素分析萃取出重要之服務指標(可靠性、舒適性、安全性、方便性與服務態度)帶入多項式羅吉特模式(MNL)、巢式羅吉特模式(NL)探討替選方案間相關之特性及加以考量個人異質性之混合羅吉特(ML)與潛類(LC)選擇模式，最後由校估結果探討影響旅運者選擇城際運具的因素。模式校估結果顯示潛類選擇模式能依旅運者之社經特性與旅次特性分成兩群，且羅吉特因素分析模式能夠有效捕捉無法衡量的心理感受之潛在變數，透過模式中之選擇模式得到潛在變數對旅運者運具選擇效用的影響。結果顯示影響中程運具選擇的是因素是車內旅行時間與成本、班距、年齡、個人所得、職業、旅次目的、旅次頻率、再次搭乘之意願及、可靠性。影響長程運具選擇的因素有車內旅行時間與成本、班距、年齡、個人所得、職業、旅次目的、旅次頻率、日期、再次搭乘之意願及可靠性。 Abstract After the change in the high-speed rail transportation in the western intercity transportation market with distribution, and energy issues facing the impact of various transportation modes to provide high quality services and maintain their own strengths to meet the needs of those who travel becomes more important. I want to study mode choice factors, in addition to previously consider travel time, travel costs, and other factors, headway, because those on individual travel service quality perception are different, and these affect the psychological mode choice factors that are difficult to quantify factors, factor analysis of this study to measure the latent variables can not be quantified, then this hidden variable link in the individual selection mode, as a new explanatory variables to explore the right mode choice behavior affected. Personal preference heterogeneity and quality of service will also be shipped with in intercity transport development by affecting travel mode choice are important factors, this study will analyze the person's personal preferences travel with service quality on the op feelings affect its operation. mode choice behavior. In this study, the Taipei to Taichung and Taipei to Kaohsiung , followed by 600 travel trip by empirical study. Factor analysis to extract important service indicators (reliability, comfort, safety, convenience and service attitude) into the Multinomial logit model (MNL), nested logit model (NL) explore alternatives correlation between the characteristics and heterogeneity of individuals considered to be mixed logit (ML) and latent class (LC) mode, the final impact of the estimation results discussed travel by intercity transportation modes selection factors. Model estimation results show latent class model can choose according to those who travel the socioeconomic characteristics and trip characteristics divided into two groups, and the logit factor analysis model can effectively capture the immeasurable psychological feeling of latent variables, through the choice of model model has been latent variables for those who travel mode choice utility impact. The results showed that affect medium-range mode choice is factor is the vehicle travel time and cost, headway, age, personal income, occupation, trip purpose, trip frequency, once again aboard the willingness and reliability. Affect long-range mode choice factors vehicle travel time and cost, headway, age, personal income, occupation, trip purpose, trip frequency, date, once again aboard the willingness and reliability.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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