本研究以921集集地震所蒐集強地動資料、人員罹難資料庫和建築物損壞資料庫，利用「等震度」與「等曝險量」之概念，建立強地動參數(如PGA及Sa)與建築物損壞率、人員罹難率之關係，並透過對數常態累積分佈函數(Lognormal CDF)之數學模型，迴歸出建築物易損曲線、人員罹難曲線及其信賴區間。研究結果顯示，不同等母體數建立之建築物易損曲線差異性不大，人員罹難曲線亦有相同結果，故將不同等母體數之建築物易損曲線與人員罹難曲線加以平均，作為推估之用。此外，本研究將建立建築物易損曲線及其信賴區間，與集集地震主要災區(台中縣及南投縣)之建築物損壞數進行推估及驗證。其推估結果大致與實際損壞情形相符，並針對推估情形差異較大之鄉鎮，加以探討說明。 In this research, the strong motion data, mortality rate, and damaged buildings data caused by the Chi-Chi earthquake were collected to model the fragility and mortality curve using the lognormal CDF mathematical model, with the concepts of isointensity and isoexposure. Results had indicated that the fragility and mortality curve only showed little difference in despite of the matrices used. Therefore, the average curves are applicable to represent the catastrophic consequences of the Chi- Chi earthquake, and further, to give a reasonable estimation. In addition, the confidence interval for fragility curve was modeled to model the actual consequences of two main catastrophic areas: Taichung and Nantou County. Most modeled results fit well with actual cases, and the cases with larger deviations were discussed.
