研究期間：10301~10312;World operation centers now are aiming at the ensemble typhoon tracks prediction. One hand is to get the fair prediction or the probability forecast by ensemble members avoiding the loss of one deterministic prediction; the other hand is to calibrate the initial conditions of typhoon like the bogus scheme, the parameter modification of typhoon structure, and selection of the physical process. The purpose of this project is to establish the prototype of ensemble prediction system using Central Weather Bureau global model. The ensemble method is based on one single model and multi perturbations. The perturbations will be decided by (1) currently Central Weather Bureau singular vectors and (2) generation by random errors. Moreover, the diagnostic tools and statistical tests will be developed and studied in this project for the future ensemble classifications and probability forecasts.
