研究期間：10101~10112;In view of the importance of rainfall prediction in Taiwan, we propose to undertake the following three research tasks: (1) Impact of global warming on climatic regime shift The NCEP and ECMWF global reanalysis data will be used to study spatial patterns of climate change in East Asia and the Pacific during the past 50 years. Various analysis tools, such as EOF and SVD, will be used to investigate the climatic pattern change and trend. Characteristics of local climate change in Taiwan, such as temperature and precipitation, will be related to the large-scale climatic pattern change, or climatic regime shift, in East Asia and Pacific regions. (2) Impact of topography on convection and precipitation The ECMWF YOTC 25-km resolution analysis and the high spatial resolution (5-km) data derived from the NCEP GFS data with application of WRF assimilation / initialization schemes will be used to study the impact of topography on convection and precipitation. Case studies will be carried out for Morakot typhoon (2009) and severe rainfall events associated with the summer monsoon southwesterly flow during the SoWMEX/TIMREX field experiment (May-Jun 2008). (3) Improvement of WRF model suitable for Taiwan regional conditions We will continue to improve the WRF model by replacing schemes of boundary layer and cloud convections specifically suitable for regional conditions over Taiwan and its vicinity. We will also couple the WRF with a regional ocean model for improvement in air-sea heat exchanges. The proposal will cover a three-year period from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2012. We will engage in domestic and international collaborations with scientists from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center on cloud modeling (Dr. Tao’s research group), from the University of Wisconsin (Prof. P.-K. Wang) on cloud microphysical and dynamical processes, from National Central University on WRF model improvement and on local climate change in relation to global warming, and from National Taiwan University on summer monsoon regime shift. The improved WRF model will be used to support the study on the impact of biomass burning on late spring - early summer southwesterly monsoon flow in South China Sea, which is one of the tasks of the 7-Sea project with Prof. N.-H. Lin of National Central University as the project Principle Investigator.
