| 摘要: | 研究期間：10208~10307;Study of real cases may provide forecast errors and analysis associated with the cases, therefore directly helping on operational prediction. However, due to involved many known and unknown factors in relation to forecast errors of real typhoon cases, ability in how to reproduce the similar tacks for real cases seems to lack confidence. In research for real typhoons with specific tracks, we may rely on ample scenario of idealized realizations for track and circulation evolutions of impinging typhoons to deduce synthetic statistics and analyze results, regarding the typhoon translation speed, radius and intensity, and slope and size of terrain topography, and then provide behavior analyses of constructed nondimensional parameters in order to control track change and severe wind and rainfall distributions. This study will apply idealized WRF version 3.3 and take controls on typhoon vortex structures (size, intensity and vertical profile), environmental steering flow (intensity and direction) and real terrain or idealized terrain, with complete physical processes, nonhydrostatic dynamics and, more important, modeling of high resolution. In the first year (2012), we will focus mainly on westbound typhoons and will review their simulations under various scenarios in comparisons with existing model results and simulations of typical real cases for track deflection mechanisms and the associated severe wind and rainfall distributions under the specific scenario. In the second year (2013), we will take care of the typhoons with skew tracks from east (like Krosa and Kamaegi) and will investigate these focal points with respect to different impinging angles and landfall positions. Meanwhile, we will also explore whether different physical parameterizations play a crucial or salient role. In the final (third) year (2014), we will set up robust statistical models for the prediction of severe wind and rainfall under their specific scenario of various typhoons. |
