颱風在臺灣地區之結構演變與降雨預報研究-子計畫:數值系集預報應用於颱風降雨與洪水之技術發展研究(I);Research Development of the Ensemble Forecasting Techonology for Typhoon-Induced Heavy Rainfalls and Severe Floods (I)

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题名:	颱風在臺灣地區之結構演變與降雨預報研究-子計畫:數值系集預報應用於颱風降雨與洪水之技術發展研究(I);Research Development of the Ensemble Forecasting Techonology for Typhoon-Induced Heavy Rainfalls and Severe Floods (I)
作者:	楊明仁
贡献者:	國立中央大學大氣科學系
关键词:	大氣科學
日期:	2013-12-01
上传时间:	2014-03-17 11:25:18 (UTC+8)
出版者:	行政院國家科學委員會
摘要:	研究期間：10208~10307;This project will use the WRF meteorological model to generate 20-40 ensemble members, which include perturbations on typhoon bogusing scheme, precipitation parameterization, and planetary boundary parameterization. The forecasted rainfalls from the WRF model will be used to drive a distributed hydrological model to predict the discharge and water stage over a target watershed. Forecast verifications for the WRF model prediction include the typhoon track error, rainfall prediction error on the Taiwan Island, and rainfall prediction error on the target watershed. Forecast verifications for the hydrological model include the predicted water-stage and discharge error with observed rainfall as an input, and the predicted water-stage and discharge error with predicted rainfall. Another key issue in this proposal is to investigate the impact of rainfall forecast uncertainty on the runoff prediction.
關聯:	財團法人國家實驗研究院科技政策研究與資訊中心
显示于类别:	[大氣科學學系] 研究計畫

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