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    题名: 防災避難疏散作業排程規劃之研究
    作者: 張紫鈺;Chang,Tzu-yu
    贡献者: 土木工程學系
    关键词: 防災避難疏散作業;時空網路;含額外限制網路流動問題;啟發解法;Disaster evacuation;Time-space network;Multiple commodity network flow problem;Heuristic
    日期: 2014-07-11
    上传时间: 2014-10-15 14:22:52 (UTC+8)
    出版者: 國立中央大學
    摘要: 台灣由於處於特殊地理位置,歷年來遭遇天然災害之次數更是數不勝數。當嚴重的天然災害發生時,不僅會危害到國人的生命安全,有時也造成重大的財物損失,而損失程度與救援的反應時間及疏散快慢有極為密切的關係,故在最短時間內疏散或撤離可能發生災情地區之民眾就成為政府的首要任務。以往疏散車輛的調度安排及路線規劃,通常由決策者根據自身之過去經驗來決定,此種方式不僅十分沒有效率,還可能因決策者的判斷錯誤,導致延誤救災的情形發生。因此,本研究以決策者的角度,以最短時間內完成疏散作業為目標,發展一防災避難疏散作業排程規劃模式,以期能提供決策者作為有效規劃之輔助工具,並協助決策者有效地進行規劃。

    此外,本研究亦利用時空網路流動技巧建立防災避難疏散作業的車流與人流網路,以定式疏散車輛及民眾在時空中的流動情況。此模式為含額外限制之整數網路流動問題,屬於NP-hard問題。為有效率地求解大規模之問題,故本研究依據問題之特性,並配合 CPLEX 數學規劃套裝軟體,發展一分階段的啟發解演算法。最後,為驗證本研究模式與啟發解演算法之實用性,以新竹市450公厘平均日累積降雨量可能造成淹水災害狀況之地區為測試範例,測試結果良好結果,顯示本模式與演算法在實務上可有效的運用,並能提供決策者做為防災避散疏散作業規劃之參考。;Because of the special geographical environment, there are many natural disasters happened in Taiwan every year. When serious natural disasters occurred, it not only endangers the safety of people′s lives but also causes significant property damage. However, the response time of rescue and the evacuation speed affect the extent of the damage deeply. Hence, the most important action for the government in the duration of the damage is evacuating the victims rapidly. In practice, the decision makers arrange the evacuative vehicles and decide the escape route base on their own experience. Without efficiency, it may end up with delay situation which is caused by the misjudgment of the decision maker. Therefore, in this research, based on the perspective of decision maker, we develop a model of optimal decision of disaster evacuation. The model is expected to be an effective tool for the decision maker; also, it can help the decision maker to solve problems.

    In addition, the time-space network flow technique is employed to represent the potential movement of the victims and the evacuative vehicles. The model is formulated as an integer multiple commodity network flow problem, which is characterized as NP-hard. To solve the problem efficiently in real practice, we developed a heuristic algorithm with CPLEX software. In order to evaluate the performance of the model and the solution algorithm practice, we perform a case study using the flooding area with the situation of 450 mm rainfall in Hsinchu County, Taiwan. The results are good, showing that the model and the solution algorithm would be useful for disaster evacuation and used as a reference for the decision maker.
    显示于类别:[土木工程研究所] 博碩士論文

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