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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/64782


    Title: 應用存活分析於市區公車駕駛行為異常之研究;A Study on Abnormal Driving Behavior of City Bus Using Survival Analysis
    Authors: 蔡秉承;Tsai,Bing-cheng
    Contributors: 土木工程學系
    Keywords: 肇事分析;駕駛行為;數位式行車紀錄器;存活分析法
    Date: 2014-07-21
    Issue Date: 2014-10-15 14:24:00 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: 國立中央大學
    Abstract: 交通事件的發生通常分為人、車、路與環境四種影響因素,依據多年的違規肇事分析文獻得知,主要因素以「人為因素」佔的比例為重,表示交通事故絕大多數是駕駛人員操作不當,以及未依規定遵守交通規則所引起。

    本研究以國內某客運公司於台北市及新北市聯營公車共計20條路線所屬之125輛使用Jasslin JAS301型數位式行車紀錄器低地板公車以及151位駕駛員為研究對象,依據存活分析法建構Cox等比例危險模式並經校估後發現,「平均站距」、「公里營收」、「連續駕駛時間」及「平均時速」4項變數對Cox模式具有顯著性的,表示以上變數可以有效解釋發生異常之存活時間。
    ;The cause of the traffic accidents are drivers, vehicles, roads and environment. The related researches show that main factor for accidents is the driver and mainly caused by improper driving operation and violations.

    This study uses data of domestic bus company’s 125 buses and 151 drivers which collected by digital tachograph for the analysis. After calibrating the Cox proportional hazard model originated from the survival analysis, we found that a total of 4 factors: i.e. "average station distance", "revenue per kilometer", "Continuous driving time" and "average speed", which possess prominence demonstration to Cox model and also could be explain effectively to the interval period of abnormal incident.
    Appears in Collections:[土木工程研究所] 博碩士論文

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