地震為大自然最具毀滅性的災難之一，由於地震事件往往具有複雜且難以預測之特性，許多地震學家亟欲了解地震發生的機制以及所附帶的效應，期待能夠藉由所觀測到的資料得到可靠的前兆指標，其最終目的便是希望有朝一日能夠對地震事件作出具參考價值的預警系統。在本研究中，利用滑塊模型做數值模擬來產生大量的事件目錄，探討事件目錄的統計特性，由前人研究中可以知道，滑塊模型事件符合地震的Gutenberg-Richter law事件特性，被認為與真實地震一樣，具有自組織臨界特性的動力系統。並且為了使滑塊模型的事件目錄具有真實地震的時間叢集特性，加入了去耦合的條件，在過大位移的塊體進行解耦合後重新鍵結，便可以在事件目錄中看見像是餘震一般的一連串事件。從能量的分析中可以發現叢集事件的能量具有特徵的消長情形，系統藉由叢集事件回到平衡的狀態。對於一般的獨立事件，能量由模型中等速運動的平板所提供，至於叢集事件則是因為在解耦合後重新鍵結時，塊體之間所受彈力不平衡，為了轉移與平衡應力所產生的事件，與地震和餘震之間的關係相似。另一方面為了探究滑塊模型的復發時間特性，可以得到大規模事件具有特徵的再現周期，藉由Weibull分布的擬合結果，估計其對應的參數λ及β，便可以進一步地得到系統在特定規模事件隨著時間的發生率。並在去耦合滑塊模型事件目錄中，發現叢集事件會嚴重的影響擬合的結果，在很短的時間內會出現相當大的事件發生機率，在採取濾除餘震事件的手段後，統計結果便更加地吻合Weibull分布。;In order to simulate an earthquake fault system which can produce events with earthquake characteristics, we apply the spring-slider model proposed by Burridge and Knopoff in 1967. In this paper, we research on that the stick-slip event generated using numerical simulation method, and decoupling conditions is introduced to study on the process of the accumulation of stress in fault zone under condition of healing after decoupling, then a series of clusters are produced after great happening. Comparing the spring-slider model with the decoupling condition to the traditional the spring-slider model by using the phase diagram analysis, the relationship between cluster events and trends of them are discussed. Then, the relationship of spring-slider model and earthquake fault structures for natural earthquakes is discussed. Furthermore, the energy of seismic focus, aftershocks and source of stress are discussed. Finally, the interevent time of event recorder were counted. Doing some fitting by using the Weibull distribution and reference to β, which can be used to determine the different sections and select the threshold for magnitude of earthquake, discussed the characteristics of its recurrence and reproduction cycle events and the influence degree of the cluster of events.
