| 摘要: | 史瓦濟蘭一直從南非電力池享有低價的電價。不幸的是，近來發生的事件而破壞一個應被視為警訊。其中例子包括因政治因素導致與南非共和國連結的1360km高壓直流電源輸出被破壞，這與已持續17年在莫三比克發生的內戰有關，因而長期影響電力的供應。對於基本的能 源安全，電力供應的替代方案應是個急迫的選項。近來已開始可輸出300萬瓦的煤炭火力發電廠作為替代方案。
本文藉由剖析科技、經濟和外部的層面來呈現方案可行性的評估。國際能源機構對於鄰近南非共和國的電源成本已經做了校正並且使用於估計史瓦濟蘭電源成本。史瓦濟蘭的通貨膨脹速率、國內生產毛額、人類發展指數、消費者物價指數和勞工平均薪資接考慮在校正上。
本文結果顯示若史瓦濟蘭可考慮煤炭火力發電廠作為可行的替代方案。從經濟上的可行性研究指出若忽略額外支出，史瓦濟蘭在運行火力發電廠後則可省下美金 56, 961, 900元。此文亦指出若無火力發電廠，史瓦濟蘭可能將在五年內面臨電力短缺，而因電力短缺而造成的能源不確定性可能帶來更大的損失。
本文提出兩種有效建議，分別為使用煤礦作為短程電力產生以及遠程而言更多的選項尤其是對於環境保護的能源方案，例如生物質能。 經由政策的考量，相關提案集中於整合可持續發展的能源產生、需求考量管理、價格導向與系統的改進，和反映實際消耗的電費等有協調性的計畫以及開發。額外的提案與未來研究工作有關，包含認為由敏感度分析而來的研究因素，這些可視為追求增加國內發電計畫的發展。;Swaziland is enjoying low import prices from the Southern African Power Pool, unfortunately, recent events took place that should act as warning. An example of these events include the politically motivated sabotage of a 1,360 km HVDC power link to South Africa which took place during the civil war in Mozambique that interrupted supply for about 17 years. Alternatives identification for supply of electricity is an urgent route to pursue if energy security is regarded fundamental. Plans to find alternatives have been initiated through a proposed domestic 300 MW coal fired power plant.
This paper performs a feasibility assessment by evaluating technical, economic and external aspects of the alternative plans. Neighboring South Africa’s projected LCOE by the International Energy Agency were adjusted and then used to estimate Swaziland’s LCOE. Adjustments used Swaziland’s inflation rate, interest rate, gross domestic product per capita, human development index, consumer price index, labor average wage and external cost.
Findings from the study demonstrate that Swaziland may have potential regarding the technical feasibility of establishing the coal-fired power plant. The economic feasibility results reveal savings of about US$56,961,900 if the country pursues the plans ignoring external costs. The study also demonstrated that in an estimated 5 year period of electricity shortage from not building the plant, energy insecurity in the form of electricity shortage costs outweigh the estimated benefits.
Using the results from this study, two kinds of working recommendations include short term goal of using coal for electricity generation and a long term goal of searching for more alternatives, especially those that are environmentally friendly like biomass. In line with policy measures, recommendations focus is on coordinated planning and development, integrated sustainable energy generation, demand-side management, price-oriented and systems improvement, and cost-reflective tariffs. Additional suggestions are related to future research work, towards studying factors that were appeared as important. This could be pursued in order to further develop the plans of increased domestic electricity generation. |
