假設稻草的產量從2013年至2020年呈線性成長，預估2020年將可生產2,769 kt，產量明顯大於2012年的1,968 kt。
利用假設案例粗略估算稻草作為燃料所需的產量，並依比例分配發電量，2012年的電廠建議容量約20 MW，占稻草的能源分配量不到10%；而2020年稻草作為燃料的分配量預估可上升至10%-30%，這些原本會浪費的資源可提供30 MW至90 MW的電廠容量。
預測結果顯示，亞齊省至2020年可將10%至30%的稻草應用於發電，發電量約294,56 GWh至883.67 GWh，可作為那些偏遠村莊的電力資源。在水稻的收穫季節中，適當的處理方式也顯示出稻田損失可降低至5.9%，而傳統的處理系統造成的損失約18.9%。進一步的評估是該稻草應用可避免的廢氣排放量，估計出的範圍約222,391 tCO2/year至667,174 tCO2/year；同時，亦測量出本項研究每年減少的碳排放量可達221,878 tCO2/year至 666,661 tCO2/year。
The feasibility assessment for rice straw-based power plant project of different capacities and the environmental impact from the emission reduction are performed for agricultural residue conditions in Aceh province, Indonesia. Rice straw usually treated as the burnt-away residue after the harvesting crop by the farmer. The enormous amount of paddy losses by the traditional handling system also represents the improper treatment in agriculture yield and waste of residue resource in rice straw in Aceh. Moreover, about 210 villages in Aceh, which located in the remote area, lack of grid-connected service yet due to the geographical location. Conforming to the aforementioned, this research evaluates the availability of rice straw for power generation and the environmental impact based on the application of rice straw.
There are several assessments being considered in this study, such as the variation of rice residue collection percentage in three different scenario cases to provide a projection in electricity generation, followed by the avoided carbon emission reduction.
Projection assumes a linear increase of rice straw from the period of 2013 to 2020 and showed that there will be 2,769 kt of rice straw generation in 2020 which is much larger the amount of rice straw 1,968 kt in 2012.
The proposal case of electricity generation is made by scenario cases with the projection for the following years with the assumption of rice straw allocation amount for fuel. According to those allocation percentage, the rough estimation of the rice straw production resulted in 2012, the proposal capacity of power plant is about 20 MW. This amount is based the less than 10% of rice straw allocation for energy purpose in 2012. In 2020 with the assumption of rice straw allocated amount for fuel varies from 10% to 30%, then these waste resources can supply for the projected capacity of rice straw-based power plant from 30 MW to 90 MW.
The electricity generation will range from 180 to 539 GWh by utilizing from 10% to 30% of the total rice straw yield in 2020. The power generation amount is a quiet promising value to be utilized as the electricity resources for those remote villages. The proposing of the proper treatment of rice yield in the pre-harvesting season also indicated the decreasing in paddy losses, which can be reduced to 5.9% from the traditional handling of hand-collection system with the paddy losses, is about 18.9%. Further estimation also gave the range of avoided emission from this type of rice straw application, which estimated in the range of 222,391 tCO2/year to 667,174 tCO2/year.
Keywords: Rice straw, Power generation, Emission reduction, Collection efficiency of rice, Aceh province, Indonesia.