臺灣位於歐亞板塊及菲律賓海板塊間的島弧碰撞帶上，由於板塊間的碰撞擠壓作用，使得臺灣地震活動相當頻繁，在1999年9月21日集集地震後，由於造成重大的損失及傷亡，使得國內各界對於地震預測相關研究產生高度重視，但由於對地震發生機制還未徹底了解，導致地震準確預測之研究困難度極高，因此各界也試著以地震發生機率作為未來地震防災規劃參考。一般而言，震源概分為斷層震源及區域震源，斷層震源指活動斷層破裂至地表所引發之地震，所呈現出地震規模與再現期視為可預期的現象；而除活動斷層引發之地震外，另外所有不屬於活動斷層的震源均可歸類為區域震源。本研究針對臺灣的區域震源（分別考慮淺震源、深震源），利用過去中央氣象局觀測的地震資料（1900~2013年），以地震學和統計學的方式建立地震發生機率模型，計算未來可能致災地震規模ML6.0、ML6.5、ML7.0在未來10年至50年內可能發生機率，以及未來10、30年發生機率超越30%、50%之臺灣各地地震規模分佈。此外，網格化地震發生機率在防災觀點有其需求性，本研究亦計算網格化微分區地震發生機率。本研究製作的臺灣區域震源發生機率潛勢圖，將可以提供各界做為地震防災規劃之參考。;Taiwan located on an arc and continent collision zone, which is between the boundary of Eurasian plate and Philippine Sea plate. And the seismicity rate is very high in Taiwan region. Especially, after a disaster earthquake on September 21st, 1999, the earthquake prediction subject became popular. But there were still some difficult problem; due to earthquake occurred mechanism was not clear enough for us. To take it over, calculating the earthquake occurrence probabilities turn into an important issue for disaster reduction. In general, earthquakes can be classified into two sources. The first one is earthquakes associated with surface fault ruptures (also called fault source), and the other one is from blind fault ruptures (also called regional source). In this study, we set up the earthquake probability model, and based on catalog of the Central Weather Bureau (the period from 1900 to 2013) to calculate the occurrence probabilities of regional source (classified into shallow and deep sources) in next 10 to 50 years. The occurrence probability of micro-zoning is needed for the seismic hazard mitigation. We also utilize the micro-zoning method to estimate the occurrence probabilities of shallow and deep source of Taiwan, respectively. The region (or area) with high potential area based on the earthquake occurrence probabilities are identified which can be used for planning of seismic hazard mitigation in Taiwan.;研究期間：10402~10412
