| 摘要: | 摘要
積雲對流在區域降水預報中扮演很重要的角色，為呈現積雲對流，積雲參數化是大氣數值模式中最主要努力的核心。如其他數值模式，新一代WRF模式針對積雲參數化方法（CPS）有幾個選項。本研究的重點是，在WRF模式中使用不同的積雲參數化方法(CPS)來模擬熱帶氣旋對流。本篇論文以颱風凡亞比（2010年）做為研究個案，此颱風為台灣南部平原帶來了非常大的暴雨（1131毫米）。透過4種方法：Kain–Fritsch（KF），Betts–Miller–Janjic（BMJ），Grell–Devenyi ensemble （GD），Grell three-dimension ensemble（G3D ）及和不使用積雲參數化方法，在颱風凡亞比的強降雨期間，進行為期三天的模擬。每個方法都有其限制，然而，KF方法表現出良好的颱風路徑，降水和垂直速度位置模擬，其結果可能是四個方法中表現最好的。GD和G3D也表現出可接受的模擬結果。然而，BMJ方法沒有成功地預測出颱風凡亞比。為了進一步了解台灣西南部降水過程中，選定了KF方法作為控制值。
由於透過輻射和行星邊界層過程的校正，雲及其相關的物理過程強烈影響了海氣（或地氣）之間的耦合作用，因此更進一步應用土地利用和粗糙度的新數據集來進行研究，並顯示了這些數據的應用改善了對此個案位置及對流強度的預報。
;Cumulus convection plays a central role in most regional precipitation predictions, where the representation of cumulus convection, generally called cumulus parameterization, is almost always at the core of efforts to numerically model the atmosphere. The new Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, like other numerical models, has several options for cumulus parameterization schemes (CPS). This study focuses on how different CPSs in the WRF model simulate tropical cyclone convection. Typhoon Fanapi (2010), which brought very heavy rainfall (1131 mm) to the south plain of Taiwan, was selected for this thesis as a study case. A three-day simulation was set up during a time of high precipitation with four CPSs: the Kain–Fritsch (KF), Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ), Grell–Devenyi ensemble (GD), Grell three-dimension ensemble (G3D), and a no-scheme. Each of these have their own limitations; however, the results from the KF scheme is likely the best among them, showing good track, precipitation, and vertical velocity location simulations. GD and G3D also exhibited acceptable simulation results. However, the BMJ model did not successfully predict this TC. To further understand the precipitation process in southwestern Taiwan, the KF scheme was chosen as a control run.
Because clouds and their associated physical processes strongly influence the coupling between the atmosphere and oceans (or ground) through modifications of the radiation and planetary boundary layer processes, further investigations applying a new data set of land use and roughness length were conducted and reveals that the application of these data improves the location and intensity of convection in this particular case. |
