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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/68024

    Title: 整合定量降雨及水文模式應用於洪水預報-以基隆河流域為例;Integrating Quantitative Precipitation and Hydrological Model using for Flood Forecasting of Keelung River
    Authors: 黃奕程;Huang,Yi-Cheng
    Contributors: 土木工程學系
    Keywords: 水文模式;定量降雨;系集預報;Hydrological Model;Quantitative Precipitation;Ensemble Forecast
    Date: 2015-07-29
    Issue Date: 2015-09-23 10:12:47 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: 國立中央大學
    Abstract: 本研究使用單向耦合的大氣水文模式系統,進行颱風及梅雨的定
    所帶來的損失。本研究欲探討之降雨事件為2012 年的蘇拉颱風,以
    及2013 年梅雨事件,該颱風於8 月2 日登入台灣,分洪量為員山子
    本文利用台灣颱風洪水研究中心模擬78 小時之降雨預報,以不
    同的積雲、微物理及邊界層等物理參數法建立20 組系集成員,並依
    時間,員山子分洪的機率呈現上升的趨勢,且在洪峰前17 小時就能
    段之預測降雨都有分洪的成員。將78 小時平均累積降雨結果顯示,
    累積降雨在17 小時的預測最佳。就個別成員而言,洪峰到達時間及
    洪峰水位為23 小時及17 小時的預測較佳。本研究可以將模擬並推估
    中心值勤人員提早預警,並爭取操作應變及通報作業時間。;In this study, single coupling atmospheric hydrological model system is
    employed to simulate the integrating quantitative precipitation of typhoon and plum
    rain. According to the simulation, it is helpful to realize the relation between the
    diversion in Yuan Shan Zi and the forecast of rain. Investigate the uncertainty of
    integrating quantitative precipitation in the water level simulation of river basin to
    reach the goal which is learn whether the water level will reach the requirement of
    diversion in Yuan Shan Zi or not before the heavy rain is coming. This study is
    expected to provide to manager as a foundation of the decision, and the related units
    can get response measures previously to decrease the damage from the disaster. In this
    study, the issues which are chosen are Su-La typhoon in 2012 and the plum rain in
    2013. Su-La typhoon is chosen because its diversion in Yuan Shan Zi is the largest in
    the recode.
    The forecast of rain for 78 hours which is developed by Taiwan Typhoon and
    Flood Research Institute is employed in this study. It uses different physical
    parameters to develop 20 sets of forecast. To investigate the situation of diversion in
    Yuan Shan Zi and the range of the uncertainty in the forecast with different time step,
    the result of Su-La typhoon shows that the probability of diversion in Yuan Shan Zi
    tend to increase with the time getting close to the raining issue occur. The diversion in
    Yuan Shan Zi can be forecasted accurately for 17 hours prior than the peak. Every
    result which is not diversion in Yuan Shan Zi is ignored. The result of the average
    cumulative rainfall for 78 hours display that the result of the cumulative rainfall for 17
    hours is best forecast. For specific set, the best forecast of the time peak and the water
    level are shown at 23 and 17 hours. The study can offer the simulation and estimate
    the information of diversion and peak within the credible range. It can provide the
    manager who wants to use the result of the integrating quantitative precipitation as
    forecast, and the staff in the Yuan Shan Zi diversion management center as a prior
    alert to save the time of operation and circular.
    Appears in Collections:[土木工程研究所] 博碩士論文

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