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|Title: ||雨量變遷對埤池輪灌管理之影響;The effect of pond and rotation irrigation system management under rainfall change|
|Keywords: ||氣候變遷;埤池及輪灌系統;Mann-Kendall趨勢檢定;氣象合成模式;系統動力模式;climate change;rotation and pond irrigation system;Mann-Kendall trend test;Weather Generator;system dynamic model|
|Issue Date: ||2015-09-23 10:15:11 (UTC+8)|
|Abstract: ||台灣地區本身季節性之降雨就有差異明顯，受全球性的氣候變遷、極端氣候之影響，引發極端乾旱或洪澇水文事件，使得水資源時空分布及氣候不確定的問題更為嚴重，農業用水為水資源用水為最大宗，缺水容忍度較民生及工業兩者為高，面對水資源短缺及供需風險提升，灌溉期間經灌區流出後未進入水道前之農業排放水具有相當之可利用潛勢，如果透過管理手段，對於水資源增加將可以有相當可觀的幫助。 |
;The seasonal rainfall is distinct difference in Taiwan. Under the effect of global climate change, the extreme flood or drought events showed the problem of water resource space-time distribution and climate uncertainty become more and more serious. Agriculture water is the largest demand of water resource and it has better shortage toleration than industry and household demand. Due to the water resource shortage and demand risk increasing, the usage of return flow amount in irrigation area during irrigation period has huge potential with management method.
Taoyuan Channel #2 Feeder was selected as the study area. This research discussed the influence of rainfall under climate change, and analyzed rainfall by the Mann-Kendall trend test for the trends in total 50 years, year 1963-1990 and that in 1991-2012. The results showed the trends of rainfall amount and day were both decreased 8.6%. Average rainfall and day decreased 157.27mm and 9 days. The trend of 10-day rainfall was decreased in dry season. It was not only indirect increased the risk of Taoyuan Channel irrigation water supply or demand in dry season, but influenced the crop cultivation irrigation arrangement for the first crop period at next year. The trend of 10-day rainfall during the first crop irrigation period by the increase became reduce between year 1963-1990 and year 1991-2012. The weather change caused by climate change was indeed a turning point. However, compared with the trend of whole year and year 1991-2012, the whole year data predicted the rainfall will apply a reliable water supply during the first crop period, but year 1991-2012’s data prediction indicated a decrease trend of rainfall. Different time interval of data showed distinct results. That caused policy decision may underestimate risk under climate change.
The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) issued the seasonal climate forecast every month. The CWB seasonal climate forecast provide for precipitation and temperature as percentage likelihood with lead time of 3 months in 1-month moving windows. To gather statistics of Taipei station and Taoyuan irrigation area historical rainfall data, the rainfall shooting average in three shooting sections (higher/ normal/ lower) are all above 0.61. The result showed that the seasonal climate forecast of Taipei station can also apply to Taoyuan irrigation area. However, the forecast ability analyze of Taipei station for precipitation as percentage likelihood with lead time of 3 months was still unstable.
The irrigation supply operation was included rotation and pond irrigation system in study area. The conditional probability of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) seasonal climate forecast was involved to Weather Generator for future rainfall data. The system dynamic model (Vensim) was used to establish the irrigation system of Taoyuan study area. The simulation case showed the #2 Feeder water shortage situation will not happen under normal supply of various water conditions. The total outflow of the first and second crop irrigation periods were 0.071CMS and 0.042CMS in the downstream, 0.025CMS and 0.013CMS in the midstream. It showed a considerable flow display released in this area. There was still great water saving space through resources management process. When water supply condition was severe, the shortage always occurred in the panicle initiation to heading stage, the peak of irrigation water period. The more or less of total rainfall was not the necessary condition of water shortage events. It was related to the time and space distribution of rainfall. The higher irrigation water accumulated rainfall corresponds to the water shortage events indicated the possible occurrence probability greater. When weather conditions were more severe, the high risk irrigation area should strengthen early warning and making corresponding strategy.
|Appears in Collections:||[土木工程研究所] 博碩士論文|
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