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|Issue Date: ||2015-09-23 10:15:31 (UTC+8)|
|Abstract: ||本研究以水位高、淘刷深度、現地土壤摩擦角為變因，並排除如洪水溢頂、堤防內管湧等較不可能之破壞機制後，考慮堤防以邊坡滑動、擋土牆滑動與擋土牆傾倒三種可能發生的破壞機制，建立不同淘刷深度、堤內外水位高、現地摩擦角下之安全係數資料庫。利用這些資料，使用蒙地卡羅模擬(Monte Carlo simulation)隨機在設定的區間中生成各變因之數值，內插各組變因決定對應之安全係數，並對其結果進行統計分析。 |
;Extreme weather has recently caused many disasters worldwide. In recent years, the condition about extreme rainfall by Typhoon has caused the loss of numerous human lives and properties in Taiwan. In fact, half of top ten record of rainfall has occurred in last ten years. In August 8, 2009, Taiwan suffered from serious floods during Typhoon Morakot. In this extreme rainfall event, Levees along the Laonong River basin between the confluences with Chokuo River and Ailiao River experienced catastrophic failure. Because the design of such levees does not consider the effects of extreme rainfall, failure had occurred with unexpected situations.
Our goal is to find the reliability index of the levee in this basin for assessing the stability of each levee. We considered the three possible major failure mechanisms (the slope sliding failure of the levee, and the sliding and overturning failures of the retaining wall) with the failure-triggering parameters (the water level, the scouring depth, and the in-situ angle of internal friction). After the database of the safety factor corresponding to each failure-triggering parameters has been generated, the safety factors can be obtained by Monte Carlo simulation under different situations. Finally, we can get the reliability index with mean value and variation by the results of MCS.
In Chiuliao 1st Levee, sliding failures of the retaining wall has largest probability, but we can’t ignore the probability of slope sliding failure due to its high variability. In Gueishan Levee, slope sliding failure has highest reliability index. In low water level difference, sliding failures of the retaining wall has lowest reliability index. In high water level difference, overturning has lower reliability index than sliding failures of the retaining wall.
|Appears in Collections:||[土木工程研究所] 博碩士論文|
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