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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/68167

    Title: 各尺度氣候資訊應用於農業用水管理的經濟價值;Information value of different ranges weather forecasts for agriculture water
    Authors: 溫家伶;Wen,Chia-ling
    Contributors: 水文與海洋科學研究所
    Keywords: 預報;乾旱;氣象產生器;系統動力模式;決策樹;Weather forecast;Drought;Weather generation;System Dynamics Model;Decision tree
    Date: 2015-07-20
    Issue Date: 2015-09-23 10:50:42 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: 國立中央大學
    Abstract: 水資源是人類不可或缺的資源,而乾旱事件的發生不只會在農業上產生損失,工商產業上也會因生產停頓及減產造成經濟上的損失。該如何管理及分配水資源,儼然成為現今一個重要的議題。氣候預報資訊可以預先掌握未來降雨趨勢預多寡,能在乾旱發生之前就先掌握未來降雨多寡落點,提早擬定決策以降低乾旱所造成的衝擊。然而預報存在風險,故本研究希望能量化預報的經濟價值及風險。
    ;Water resource is necessary for human. The drought causes economic losses not only in agriculture but also in industry and commerce. Climate forecasts help us to predict rainfalls before droughts happen. Policymakers can make decisions in advance to reduce the drought-induced impact on agriculture, industry or commerce. However, there are uncertainties in climate forecasts. Quantification of the risk of decisions that are made based on climate forecasts and the corresponding information value of climate forecasts becomes an important issue of water resource management.
    In this study, I used the seasonal climate forecasts and the SIA-CWBI system to simulate the agricultural water supplies in Shimen, estimated the amounts of the agricultural water shortages which were calculated from the differences between the agricultural water demands and supplies, found out the compensation costs and the water tariffs, and got the information value of the climate forecasts with the decision trees.
    In addition, I used the CROPWAT system to simulate the water demands for rice, estimated the amounts of the water shortages for rice which equal to the amounts of the water demands for rice minus the water supplies for rice, converted the amounts of the water shortages into the economic losses, and got the information value of the climate forecasts with the decision trees.
    Finally, I evaluated the expect value of perfect information (EVPI) and the expect value of imperfect information (EVII) of the short-term climate forecast on the fallow decision. The results show that EVII increased as the degree of the accuracy of the forecasts increased. In addition, the maximum EVPI/EVII occurred when the fallow decision based on the initial water storage was difficult to make. I also constructed a framework of agricultural water usage with the help of monthly climate forecasts. By following the framework, decision-makers can reduce the damage caused by droughts and quantify the information value of the monthly climate forecasts.
    Appears in Collections:[水文與海洋科學研究所] 博碩士論文

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