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|Title: ||短期氣候預報在石門水庫梅雨期之水資源管理應用;Applying Short-term Climate Outlooks to Water Resources Managements of the Shihmen Reservoir in Plum Rains Seasons|
|Issue Date: ||2015-09-23 10:50:48 (UTC+8)|
本研究使用1982-2011年的觀測資料做為氣候背景值，分析歷年梅雨期間石門水庫集水區的水文特徵，探討梅雨期降雨的重要性、降水量的變化與梅雨主要影響的時間。以2015年乾旱事件做為研究案例，結合中央氣象局提供未來三個月逐月之等級機率預報產品，包含動力區域降尺度預報及統計降尺度預報，透過氣象合成模式(WGEN)、水文模式(GWLF)以及水資源系統動力(System Dynamics Model)模擬石門供水區在梅雨時期可能的水資源情形以及受到乾旱影響的程度。
;The annual rainfall in Taiwan is about 2500 mm/yr, but its spatial and temporal distribution has great discrepancy and is mainly contributed by typhoon events and Plum rains season. The Plum rainfall is the second important source of fresh water except typhoon rainfalls in the island. In addition to typhoon and Plum rainfalls, the amount of spring rainfall is also critical to the water resources management of the Shihmen Reservoir in northern Taiwan. The 2015 drought in northern Taiwan was mainly caused by both typhoon rainfalls in 2014 and spring rainfalls in 2015 were significantly lower than climatology. Restriction on water supply with no water for 2 days in a week was applied in April and back to normal until the hit of Plum rainfall in May.
In this study, observed data of 1982-2011 was analyzed to understand the importance of Plum rainfall, including amount, variation, duration, and onset, to the Shihmen Reservoir Watershed. Then the 2015 drought occurred in the Shihmen Reservoir Watershed was investigated with seasonal climate forecast products of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB). The seasonal climate forecasts, including dynamic regional downscaling forecast and statistical downscaling forecast, by the CWB were used to provide outlooks of monthly precipitation and temperature with 1-3 months of leadtime. A Weather Generator (WGEN) was applied to generate multimembers of daily precipitation and temperature to drive the Generalized Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF) for reservoir inflow predictions. Finally a System Dynamics Model was employed to simulate water allocations of the regional water supply system in association with the Shihmen Reservoir Watershed.
The results show that precipitation forecasts have better forecasting skills in May, but overestimate in June causing larger estimation of inflows. Since drought is caused by persistent low rainfall lasting for several months, like the case in 2015, overall improvement of seasonal climate forecast skills are required to build confidence to water sectors. On the water resource management perspective, it is too conservative to rely on current reservoir capacity and climatology information to the decision making of reservoir operations. Climate outlooks certainly should be involved in reservoir operations subject to improved skill can be demonstrated.
|Appears in Collections:||[水文與海洋科學研究所] 博碩士論文|
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