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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/71097

    Title: 氣候變遷下台南地區水資源之衝擊與調適;Impact and adaption of water resources in Tainan area under climate change
    Authors: 王義傑;WANG,YI-JIE
    Contributors: 土木工程學系
    Keywords: 系統動力模式;氣候變遷;調適;水文模式;Climate change;VENSIM;GWLF;Deficit Percent Day;Agriculture Shortage Index
    Date: 2016-06-15
    Issue Date: 2016-10-13 12:06:04 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: 國立中央大學
    Abstract: 台灣南部地區雨量集中於豐水時期,而枯水期的用水必須仰賴水資源系統管理,近年來受到氣候變遷的影響,台灣極端降雨及乾旱事件頻繁,本文研究台南地區氣候變遷對水資源系統之衝擊,並分析採行不同調適措施對降低氣候變遷衝擊的效能。
    研究方法包含使用氣象合成模式將歷史的雨量及溫度資料進行繁衍,模擬近未來(2020~2039)200組資料,再透過水文模式(GWLF)進而求得台南區域未來的流量資料。藉由水資源系統動力軟體(VENSIM)去建構研究區域水資源系統,將上述台南地區相關資料匯入系統動力模式中便可求得該區域供需水情形,以探討氣候變遷下台南地區水資源系統狀況。本文以DPD (Deficit Percent Day)作為公共缺水指標、ASI (Agriculture Shortage Index)作為農業缺水指標探討台南地區水資源系統之衝擊。
    ;The impact of climate change increases extreme rainfall and drought events in Taiwan recent years. Rainfall in southern Taiwan is usually concentrated in wet period. Therefore, water supply relies on adequate water resources system management in the dry season. This paper investigates the impact of climate change in Tainan water resources systems and the potential improvement measures in different ways. Daily weather data was derived from weather generator and subsequently flow was simulated with the hydrological model, namely, GWLF model.
    Regional water system was constructed with the system dynamics model, namely, VENSIM. The results of the water supply and demand simulation runs, represented as Deficit Percent Day (DPD) and Agriculture Shortage Index (ASI), were analyzed to investigate the impact on Tainan water resources system. Significant correlations among DPD, ASI and flow were identified, under different future scenarios. Lack of water resources carrying capacity in Tainan is concluded, given public water demand growth scenarios. Among three adaptation measures, namely water treatment plant expansion, public water demand reduction, and dry season fallow enforcement, the most effective is treatment plant expansion.
    Appears in Collections:[土木工程研究所] 博碩士論文

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