高速公路事故潛勢分析;Potential Analysis of Traffic Accidents on Freeway

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題名:	高速公路事故潛勢分析;Potential Analysis of Traffic Accidents on Freeway
作者:	李書妤;Li,Shu-Yu
貢獻者:	土木工程學系
關鍵詞:	卜瓦松迴歸;負二項迴歸;零膨脹迴歸;風險分析;潛勢分析
日期:	2016-07-13
上傳時間:	2016-10-13 12:06:44 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	歷來交通相關單位針對事故因素分析之議題不斷地保持高度關注，其目的為確認肇事因素進而提出改善策略，以降低事故發生率或是減輕事故嚴重性等。而相關單位統計各路段近十年之事故發生次數，設立易肇事路段道路標示牌，期望能使駕駛人提高警覺，以降低事故之發生次數。但易肇事路段道路標示牌只能提供用路人靜態資訊，而此資訊無法隨時間、路況及氣候有所更動，因此本研究希望能提出一個動態之易肇事路段資訊以供駕駛人做為參考依據。本研究針對2014年台灣國道1號北區路段之事故資料進行相關統計、風險分析、潛勢分析之研究，以幾何線型特性分割路段後，再以零膨脹負二項迴歸模式構建事故次數模式，根據事故次數預測模式之結果進行風險分析求得風險值，再利用潛勢分析對風險值進行分級，最後以地理空間分析呈現潛勢分級圖。根據研究結果顯示主要影響國道1號北區路段事故次數之因素為縱坡度、流量、流量/容量之比(V/C值)及曝光量等四項變數。最後，以2015年4月2日之資料進行分析，發現日間7點時高潛勢以上之路段數為最多；此外，竹北交流道從日間6點至晚間12點皆處於高潛勢至極高潛勢之程度。;Accident analysis done by traffic–related departments has been continuously discussed and followed. The reason for this is to confirm the causes of accidents and further suggest improvement strategies in order to lower accident rates or alleviate the severity of accidents. Related departments have figured out the number of accidents that occurred on different highway sections over the past 10 years, setting up road signs on prone traffic accidents so as to raise driver awareness and lower the number of accidents. However, these signs can only provide statistical information to drivers and are unable to be updated along with time, traffic and weather conditions. Therefore, this research is aimed at providing dynamic information of prone traffic accidents for drivers as a reference. The research focused on accidents that took place at the northern section of Taiwan highway number one and performed research on relevant statistics, risk analysis and potential analysis. Firstly, the road section in question was divided up based on linear geometric characteristics and a Zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) Regression Model was used to establish a Model of accident rates. After that, the accident rates were used to predict simulation results, which was then followed by a risk analysis to obtain values at risk and utilized potential analysis to categorize different values of risk. At the end, geospatial analysis was used to produce a potential map. Research outcome had revealed that the four significant variables affecting accident rates of the northern section of highway number one are, vertical grade, traffic flow, V/C value, and exposure. Lastly, analysis on data recorded on 2nd April, 2015 was performed and it was realized that the number of high accident potential road sections surged to a maximum at 7 am in the morning, while the, Jubei interchange stayed at high to extremely high potential from 6 am in the morning to 12 am in the evening.
顯示於類別:	[土木工程研究所] 博碩士論文

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