應用三維水文數值模式模擬土地利用及氣候變遷下地下水位變化趨勢-以新竹鳳山溪為例;Applying a Three-Dimensional Numerical Model to Simulate the Trend of the Groundwater Level under Land Use Change and Climate Change in Fongshan River Basin

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题名:	應用三維水文數值模式模擬土地利用及氣候變遷下地下水位變化趨勢-以新竹鳳山溪為例;Applying a Three-Dimensional Numerical Model to Simulate the Trend of the Groundwater Level under Land Use Change and Climate Change in Fongshan River Basin
作者:	葉震升;Yeh,Zheng-Shen
贡献者:	土木工程學系
关键词:	WASH123D;地下水位;土地利用變遷;氣候變遷;WASH123D;Groundwater Level;Land-use Change;Climate Change
日期:	2016-07-27
上传时间:	2016-10-13 12:10:38 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	台灣地區受到地形及氣候影響下降雨時空分布極為不均，導致水資源不易保存，近年來在都會區迅速發展下，許多森林及農業用地開發成為不透水之建物，此現象將可能導致降雨補注至地層中之數量及速度大幅降低，此外，在氣候變遷影響逐漸加劇下，降雨型態之改變亦可能衝擊到地下水資源之補注，故為深入了解土地利用及氣候變遷對於地下水資源之影響，本研究選定新竹鳳山溪流域，蒐集流域相關地下水及水文地質資料後，提出區域之水文地質概念模型，並以水文數值模式WASH123D (WAterSHed Systems of 1-D Stream-River Network, 2-D Overland Regime, and 3-D Subsurface Media)耦合地表及地下環境進行模擬，以2011年6月和2012年5月之降雨事件分別進行參數校準和驗證，檢定結果決定係數( R^2 )平均可達0.8、均方根誤差(RMSE)僅0.2m以下，說明本模式可應用於後續情境之地下水位模擬。於近未來時期(2020年-2040年)，新埔站受側向補注影響，土地變遷情境中平均地下水位皆上漲，情境一(無限制發展)濕季平均增加0.32cm、乾季平均增加0.26cm，情境二(森林限制發展)濕季平均增加1.34cm、乾季平均增加1.21cm，情境三(坡度大於30%限制發展)濕季平均增加1.55cm、乾季平均增加1.36cm；氣候變遷情境中，乾季平均地下水位影響最大為RCP2.6平均減少0.7cm、最小為RCP8.5平均減少0.15cm，梅雨季影響最大為RCP2.6平均減少3.38cm、最小為RCP6.0平均減少2.56cm，颱風季節影響最大為RCP2.6平均增加1.26cm、最小為RCP6.0平均減少0.15cm。以鳳山溪全區而言，多數區域之地下水位受到氣候變遷之影響大於土地利用變遷，僅下游平坦區域(竹北地區)受到土地利用變遷影響大於氣候變遷。;Water resources are not easy preserved in Taiwan due to our uneven spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. In recent decades, some forests and agricultures have become impermeable lands due to our rapid development of urbanization. It may affect surface runoffs and groundwater recharges in a watershed. In addition, the climate change has confirmed to influence local precipitation pattern, and further to affect water resources. In order to improve our understanding the effects of land cover changes and climate changes in a watershed, this study selected Hsinchu Fengshan River basin as study site and applied WASH123D numerical model to simulate watershed flow variabilities. We used two periods of hydrological records (June of 2011 and May of 2012) to calibrate model parameters and validate its performance. Calibrations indicated that the value of R-Square (R^2) is above 0.8 and the Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE) is less than 0.2 m. It means a good performance on model calibration is conducted. And then we implemented these setups for further simulations of designed scenarios. Three scenarios of land cover changes with future scenarios (2020-2040 years) have designed. Results of groundwater levels are all slightly increase as land cover has changed. Scenario 1, which is unrestricted developing in a watershed, shows river stages increase 0.32 cm in wet season, and rise 0.26 cm in dry season. Scenario 2, which forests are preserved, shows that river stage increases 1.34 cm in wet season, and increase 1.21 cm in dry season. Scenario 3, which hillside is restricted to develop, groundwater level increases 1.55 cm in wet season, and increase 1.36 cm on dry season. However, the trend of groundwater level reveals some variations under climate changes. Groundwater level decrease 0.7 cm on RCP2.6 scenario, and decline 0.15 cm in dry season of RCP8.5. For the plum rain season, it has 3.38 cm decreasing as using RCP2.6, and decrease 2.56 cm of RCP6.0 scenario. For typhoon season, groundwater levels increase 1.26 cm on RCP2.6, and decrease 0.15 cm on the RCP6.0 scenario. In general, this study concluded that the effects of groundwater levels in Fengshan River basin caused by climate changes have more obviously vibrations than land cover changes.
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