分析氣候及土地利用變遷情境對鳳山溪流域水文通量之影響;Analyze the Impact of Hydrological Fluxes of Climate and Land Use Changes in Fongshan River Basin

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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/71193

Title:	分析氣候及土地利用變遷情境對鳳山溪流域水文通量之影響;Analyze the Impact of Hydrological Fluxes of Climate and Land Use Changes in Fongshan River Basin
Authors:	林志儒;Lin,Chih-Ju
Contributors:	土木工程學系
Keywords:	土地利用變遷;氣候變遷;SWAT 模式;CLUEs 模式;Land use change;CLUE-s;MGWLF;Climate change
Date:	2016-07-29
Issue Date:	2016-10-13 12:11:45 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	人類對地球陸地表面造成了前所未有的影響，這些變化影響了地球的系統功能，並直接影響到全球的生物多樣性、促進當地和區域的氣候變化，土地利用型態與格局改變，以水資源的角度考量，會對水文環境造成衝擊，而全球暖化造成大氣中溫室氣體的增加，亦會改變水文循環，為了維護自然環境與水土資源的永續發展，本研究使用土地利用變遷模式(CLUE-s)、水文模式(SWAT)以及氣象合成模式(WGEN)，探討鳳山溪流域近未來(2020 年到2039 年)在土地利用變遷與氣候變遷之情境下，流域內水文通量的變化。首先分析土地利用變遷因子，再使用CLUE-s 模式模擬未來土地利用變遷之狀況，並設定三個土地利用變遷情境，分別為無限制開發、森林限制開發及山坡地限制開發，將模擬出未來土地利用變遷之結果與TCCIP 所提供之五種未來氣候變遷情境A1B、RCPs，代入到SWAT 水文模式中進行水文量之估算。模擬結果顯示在未來土地利用變遷下會造成月平均逕流量上升 9.4mm，年平均蒸發散量減少4.6mm，且結果顯示非都會區如森林、農田及遊憩用地較為集中分布會對逕流量造成下降的影響，月平均逕流量降低 2.1mm。未來氣候變遷下造成逕流量在一月到五月呈現下降的趨勢，月平均逕流量下降4.1mm，六月到十二月呈現上升的趨勢，月平均逕流量上升 7.2mm。綜合氣候變遷與土地利用變遷可發現氣候變遷對鳳山溪流域的蒸發散量有較為顯著的影響，在流量方面則為氣候變遷與土地利用變遷交互作用之影響；氣候變遷對鳳山溪流域之地表逕流造成影響在各情境之間在近未來的變化趨勢並不明顯，土地利用的分布情形確實會對鳳山溪流域之地表逕流造成影響但其影響力相對於土地利用的面積變化影響較小。;Land use change, being the consequence of the interactions of the environment, society economic, policy and human activity, causes significant impacts on water environment. These impacts can be magnified under climate change (global warming) situation which is expected to rise the temperature and alter the hydrological cycle. This study investigates both land use changes and climate changes to analyze the impact of hydrological fluxes under future scenario. The CLUE-s model, SWAT model and WGEN model were employed to estimate the impacts of hydrological fluxes of Fongshan River basin in Northern Taiwan, given land use changes and climate changes condition projected in 2031. For data analysis, GIS was employed to analyze the driving forces of land use changes, then CLUE-s model to project the land use changes in 2031. The outcomes of land use change, along with the introduction of 5 climate change scenarios, namely AIB and 4 RCPs, were investigated with the use of SWAT model to estimate the variation of hydrological fluxes. The results of simulation indicated that the monthly stream flow under land use changes alone increases 9.4 mm, while evapotranspiration decreases 4.6 mm. However, the impacts of climate change with current land use condition showed monthly stream flows from January to May decrease 4.1mm, while those from June to December increase 7.2 mm, in average. In conclusion, the relative influence on hydrologic fluxes due to climate change and land use changes are not consistent.
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