|Abstract: ||依據世界銀行「天然災害熱點：全球風險分析(Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis)」報告指出，台灣是全球最易遭受天然災害威脅的地區之一。事實上，台灣的公私部門每年皆會共同籌備並實施各項的災害防救演練計畫，希望以此能減輕災害的衝擊與影響，因此，為增進防救災單位的應變能力，策劃妥適的災害防救演練活動將扮演著至關重要的角色，然而，目前對於演練策劃而言，設計出一個合理的災害演練腳本卻是一件費時與費力的工作，同時在災害情境想定上亦容易出錯，極需仰賴演練策劃人員的經驗，以及災害管理人員、第一線救災人員的積極參與。此外，根據日本311地震之受災經驗，社區的耐災程度往往與平時的防災演練工作確實與否息息相關。|
本研究以地震災害為例發展一套災害決策輔助模型，開發示範系統稱之為地震災害演練腳本產生與模擬系統(EDSS, Earthquake Drills Generation and Simulation System)，並選擇台北市信義區為測試範例，模擬地震事件下能自動化產生合理的災害境況，提供輔助防災演練使用。EDSS產生的災害境況援引自災害損失評估的結果，其可由台灣地震損失評估系統(TELES)所提供，同時利用Unity遊戲引擎建構3D嚴肅遊戲，以呈現出不同於以往純文本腳本型式的災害境況。由於EDSS整合災害損失評估以及3D災害境況的生成，因此在真實地震事件下，可將已蒐集之建物災情訊息輸入至EDSS做進一步的分析，經由比對震損評估結果，即可提早發覺可能被忽略未發現之災情，提供災害決策輔助之用。最後，本研究藉由邀請多位資深的災害演練策劃人員、災害指揮官以及現場搶救人員進行專家問卷調查，以驗證與評鑑EDSS的有效性，評鑑結果顯示EDSS對於輔助災害防救演練確實有所幫助，並且具有未來發展潛力。;Taiwan is one of the world’s most disaster-prone regions, as indicated in the World Bank’s report entitled “Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis.” In fact, every year Taiwan public and private organizations need to work together to prepare various training programs in hope of mitigating disaster impact. Design of an appropriate disaster drill, hence, plays an important role of enhancing the capability of their emergency response units. However, developing a reasonable scenario for the disaster drill is a time-consuming, error-prone task, and experienced drill designers, disaster management officers and/or first responders are required to join the development work. The level of a community’s disaster preparedness and readiness are also highly dependent on whether such work is performed well.
In this research, an earthquake disaster and an area in the city of Taipei were selected for the demonstration of the proposed decision support model and its system, called EDSS (Earthquake Drills Generation and Simulation System). EDSS requires an input data set containing the impact assessments of an earthquake disaster, which can be obtained from Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES) and are similar to the results of using HAZUS (Hazards in the U.S., a tool created by FEMA and the base version of TELES). EDSS utilizes Unity, a 3D serious game engine, to actually display the events of an earthquake disaster in accordance with the drill script, which is traditionally shown as plain text. In the designated area, real building geometry and simulated earthquake event are rendered inside Unity; hence, after the occurrence of a real earthquake, building damage information can be collected and entered into EDSS for further analysis, in order to show the remaining, disaster-related events not currently discovered by first responders.
In model validation, senior drill designers, disaster management officers and first responders were invited to evaluate the effectiveness of EDSS, and the results show that EDSS has the potential of improving first responders’ awareness of field conditions as well as helps first responders better understand how a disaster evolves over time.