職業棒球球隊球員組合最佳化之研究

NCU Institutional Repository > 工學院 > 土木工程學系碩士在職專班 > 博碩士論文 > Item 987654321/72831

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题名:	職業棒球球隊球員組合最佳化之研究
作者:	劉家欣;Liu, Chia-Hsin
贡献者:	土木工程學系在職專班
关键词:	棒球;職業球隊;球員組合;整數規劃;最佳化;Lingo;MLB;Baseball;professional baseball team;player combination;integer programming;optimization;Lingo;MLB
日期:	2017-01-16
上传时间:	2017-05-05 17:06:14 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	職業運動組織戰績常影響組織收入，為能否長期營運的關鍵之一。美國最早出現的職業運動組織是棒球，其採回合制的特性，使比賽中各項統計數據的透明度高，易於統計分析，現有研究除了用以評估團隊薪資結構、球員生涯表現模式外，亦不乏有研究建立分析球隊能否進入季後賽的預測模型，並經實證分析確有8成以上的正確性。在美國職棒大聯盟（MLB）中，以自由球員簽約限制最小，也常有球隊因自由球員補強大幅提升戰績。本研究旨在應用最佳化理論進行職業球隊球員組合分析作業，找出同樣表現水準下，具有最佳薪資效率的球員組合，並考量各使用者需求，提供球員選擇、參數、出賽頻率等條件設置空間，利用數學模型快速計算的特性，給予球團評估特定需求及簽約名單參考。另外，本研究亦針對重要參數進行敏感度分析，以參數變化影響提供決策評估參考。;The performance record of professional sport organizations often affects their income and is the key deciding factor for their long-term survival. The first professional sport organization that appeared in the United States is baseball, and its inning-based feature has enabled high level of statistical data transparency for the various game and facilitated statistical analysis. In addition to evaluating the team salary structure and the player′s career performance models, ample studies have also investigated prediction models used to analyze weather certain teams can enter the playoffs. The rate of accuracy for empirical analyses conducted by such studies is over 80%. In the Major League Baseball (MLB), free agents have the lowest contract restrictions and teams have often significantly increased their game winning records because of free agents. The objective of this study is to perform professional team player portfolio analyses using the optimization theory to identify the most salary efficient player combinations under the same performance levels and provide the condition setting options such as player selection, parameters, or game play frequency as required by the users. The mathematical model′s rapid calculation feature is adopted to provide references for specific team evaluation requirements and contract lists. In addition, this study will also perform sensitivity analysis for the key parameters and use the parameter changes and impacts to provide references for strategy assessment.
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