西北太平洋颱風模式在農業保險的應用

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题名:	西北太平洋颱風模式在農業保險的應用
作者:	李思翰;Lee, Sz-Han
贡献者:	土木工程學系
关键词:	巨災風險評估模型;易損性曲線;超越機率曲線;農業保險;Catastrophe Risk Assessment Model;Fragility Curve;EP curve;Agricultural Insurance
日期:	2017-01-23
上传时间:	2017-05-05 17:06:20 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	台灣位處於西北太平洋季風氣候區，每年頻繁的受到颱風災害侵襲，然而台灣農業保險的發展仍在起步階段，因此颱風損害模型的發展是目前需要重視的課題。本研究基於巨災風險評估模型的架構，並針對易損性模組和財務模組作分析，為了瞭解颱風會造成多少損失，必須根據歷史資料建立損害比與風速之間的關係，繪製易損性曲線。易損性曲線的建立方法為利用數據分箱方法，將歷史數據根據蒲福風級的風速等級劃分群組，對各種標的物類型與風速區間分別進行損害函數的擬合。財務分析模組則考慮了標的物受到複數颱風災害侵襲的影響，以Post-Event Loss方法計算標的物最終的損失，生成事件年損失表，根據年損失表繪製超越機率曲線，作為財務分析時的判斷依據。;Taiwan is located in the northwest Pacific monsoon climate zone, there are many typhoon landing every year. However, the development of Taiwan′s agricultural insurance is still in its infancy, the construction of the typhoon damage model is a topic that needs attention at present. This research is based on the catastrophe risk assessment model architecture and focus on vulnerable module and financial module, in order to understand how much damage the typhoon will cause, we must find the relationship between damage ratio and wind speed by fitting historical data and draw the fragility curve. The method of establishing fragility curve is to use data binning method and use the Beaufort wind scale as the basis for group division, and the damage functions of various target types and wind speed classes are fitted respectively. Financial analysis module is considered a subject matter by the impact of multiple typhoon disaster, the loss of the subject matter is calculated by the Post-Event Loss method and a year loss table is generated. Finally, using the year loss table to draw out the EP curve, and this can be used in financial analysis.
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