中國大陸建築地震損害分析

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題名:	中國大陸建築地震損害分析
作者:	方順弘;Fang, Shun-Hung
貢獻者:	土木工程學系
關鍵詞:	風險評估;損害分析;震害矩陣;易損性曲線;Risk assessment;Vulnerability;Damage probability matrix;Fragility curve
日期:	2017-07-19
上傳時間:	2017-10-27 12:15:14 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	中國大陸在印度洋海板塊及太平洋板塊作用下地震頻繁，且隨著人口成長與建築增加使暴露在地震下的風險越來越高，可能造成人員傷亡以及建築損害甚至是國家社會經濟損失，再加上中國大陸目前巨災風險管理發展尚未足夠成熟，故本研究將對如何以巨災風險管理減少地震影響做討論。巨災風險管理系統可分為事件模組、危害度模組、暴露模組、損害分析模組、財務模組，為了評估地震對結構物的損害以及相關地震保險費率的釐定，本研究將著重於損害分析模組中易損性曲線的建立方法與收集各行政區的統計資料且對資料不足地區進行風險暴露量推估，並計算損失超越機率。本研究易損性曲線採用之統計方法為使用文獻中蒐集歷史地震震害資料建立震害矩陣做回歸分析，並以不同函數對鋼筋混凝土框架結構在各損壞狀態的易損性曲線並計算平均損壞比，再用貝式分析加入歷史事件修正既有的易損性曲線，最後以中國大陸河北省張家口市為例，介紹地震風險暴露模量推估方式與流程以及地震保險的配置。 ;The occurrence of earthquake in Mainland China is very frequent due to the collision of the Indian Ocean plate and the Pacific plate, and as the population grows and increases in buildings, the risk of exposure to earthquakes is increasing, causing casualties and damage to buildings and even national socio-economic losses. The development of catastrophe risk management in Mainland China is not yet matured enough, so this study aims to discuss how to reduce earthquake impact by catastrophe risk management. Catastrophe risk assessment model contains event module, hazard module, exposure module, vulnerability module and financial module. In order to assess the damage of the earthquake to the structure and decide the premium of earthquake insurance, this study focuses on vulnerability assessment for establishing fragility curve. Collecting the statistical loss data of the administrative regions, and estimating the risk exposure in the area to calculate the loss exceeding probability. In this study, the fragility curve is based on damage probability matrix collected by using the historical earthquake damage data, and compares the fragility curves of reinforced concrete frame structure with different distributions are used to calculate the mean damage ratio. Furthermore, fragility curve is updated by using Bayesian scheme with discrete prior and likelihood function. Finally, we introduce the construction scheme and process of earthquake risk exposure module and the analysis of earthquake insurance in Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, China.
顯示於類別:	[土木工程研究所] 博碩士論文

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