台灣地區淹水損失分析－以中港溪及其附近流域為例

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題名:	台灣地區淹水損失分析－以中港溪及其附近流域為例
作者:	陳元培;Chen, Yuan-Pei
貢獻者:	土木工程學系
關鍵詞:	巨災風險評估模型;淹水損失分析;WASH123D;Catastrophe risk assessment model;Flooding loss analysis;WASH123D
日期:	2017-07-28
上傳時間:	2017-10-27 12:16:21 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	過去台灣地區一年遭到颱風侵襲平均約3-4次，頻繁的颱風事件常伴隨著暴雨及淹水的產生，面對如此頻繁的淹水事件，民眾之財物暴露於風險下的機會也大大增加，故本研究將以巨災風險評估模型討論各個淹水事件造成的損失情形。巨災風險評估模型分為推測事件模組、危害度分析模組、暴露度模組、損失分析模組與財務模組，為了評估淹水造成的損失，本研究將著重於暴露度模組以及損失分析模組，以台灣中港溪及其附近流域內之住宅和工商及服務業為對象，先以WASH123D模式進行各重現期的淹水情形模擬，並蒐集台灣地區淹水損失的相關文獻並修正以及風險暴露量之資訊，最後計算年平均損失與損失超越機率。 ;In the past, there were about 3-4 typhoons to hit Taiwan per year on average. Typhoon events were often accompanied by heavy rain and flooding. Facing of such flooding, the chance of people’s property exposed to risks was also significant increasing. In this study, the catastrophe risk assessment model is used to assess the loss caused by the various flooding events. The catastrophe risk assessment model includes five different modules, which are stochastic event module, hazard module, exposure module, vulnerability module and financial module. To assess the loss caused by flooding, this study will focus on exposure module and vulnerability module. Considered the residential houses and industrial, commercial, service industries in Zhong Gang river and its nearby basins as the targets of this study, three steps were taken to conduct this investigation. First, WASH123D model was employed to simulate and delineate flooding due to various return periods of precipitation. Second, relevant literatures and the information of risk exposure were collected. Finally the annual average loss and loss exceeding probability were calculated.
顯示於類別:	[土木工程研究所] 博碩士論文

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