水文模式結合季長期天氣展望推估鳳山溪流域地下水位變化;Combination a Hydrological Modeling with Seasonal Climate Outlooks for Estimating the Trend of the Water Level in Fongshan River Basin

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題名:	水文模式結合季長期天氣展望推估鳳山溪流域地下水位變化;Combination a Hydrological Modeling with Seasonal Climate Outlooks for Estimating the Trend of the Water Level in Fongshan River Basin
作者:	陳奕全;Chen, Yi-Chuan
貢獻者:	土木工程學系
關鍵詞:	WASH123D;WGEN;季節性預報;地下水位;WASH123D;WGEN;Seasonal climate outlooks;Groundwater level
日期:	2017-07-31
上傳時間:	2017-10-27 12:16:58 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	台灣水資源的問題越發嚴重，平均年降雨量約是世界平均值的3.5倍，但國人平均分配到的年水量只有世界的1/7，再加上人口稠密、都市化效應、降雨型態改變以及地形陡峻等因素，結果造成水資源保存不易，更因為降雨集中往往造成雨季時河水暴漲以及淹水等嚴重問題，以往年的統計來看豐枯水年從19年循環逐漸變為7年循環，並且極端數據越來越多，這情況在2013年後越發明顯，而隨著降雨強度增加，更要面臨低窪地區淹水和山坡地發生土石崩落的機率增加等潛在危機，因此分析流域中水文變化情形變為很重要的課題。為此本研究選定新竹鳳山溪流域為研究區域，蒐集流域相關資料後，以GMS進行水文模式的地表地下水之網格建模，再以HEC-HMS模擬山區地表逕流，最後用水文模式WASH123D(WaterSHed Systems of 1-D Stream-River Network, 2-D Overland Regime, and 3-D Subsurface Media)進行該研究區域的校準與驗證，結果顯示模擬使用之參數適用於此流域，因此此模式可拿來做為鳳山溪流域中之後續研究使用。接著以台灣氣象局季長期氣候預報結合氣象合成模式WGEN繁衍出未來的降雨情況當作氣象參數輸入WASH123D，探討模式對於季節性預報的適用性，分析結果顯示，每個月地下水位受到前一個月的雨量影響很大，所以若季長期氣候預報之結果不準確，則模擬之結果就會出現高估或低估地下水位之情況，所以雨量預報的準確與否是影響模擬結果很重要的因素。 ;The problem of water resources in Taiwan is becoming more and more serious. The average annual rainfall is about 3.5 times the world average, but the average distribution of water for a person only equals world’s 1/7. The records show that the cycle period of wet and dry has gradually changed from the 19 year to 7 year. This situation became more apparent after 2013, with the increase of extreme rainfall events, flooding and the landslides threaten people’s life and property. Therefore, analysis of hydrological changes in the basin becomes a very important issue. This study chooses Hsinchu Fengshan River basin as the study area. Surface runoff of mountain area was simulated with HEC-HMS model, and WASH123D model was applied for the simulation of hydrologic fluxes, including river water level and groundwater flow. The results revealed a good performance on model simulation, and then used these setups for further groundwater flow simulation. The next step use the seasonal climate outlooks, issued by Taiwan Central Weather Bureau, incorporated with the approach by combining WGEN model and WASH123D model. The results show that the monthly groundwater flow is greatly affected by the rainfall of the previous month. So if the seasonal climate outlooks are not accurate, then the simulation outcome will be overvalued or underestimated. Therefore, the accuracy of the seasonal climate outlooks is an important factor influencing the simulation outcome.
顯示於類別:	[土木工程研究所] 博碩士論文

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