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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/7496

    Title: 餘震序列RJ模型之貝氏分析;Bayes analysis of RJ model in aftershock sequence
    Authors: 劉雯琪;Wen-Chi Liu
    Contributors: 統計研究所
    Keywords: RJ模型;RJ model;aftershock sequence
    Date: 2003-01-08
    Issue Date: 2009-09-22 10:58:52 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: 國立中央大學圖書館
    Abstract: 本文根據Reasenberg和Jones(1989)提出的時間-規模頻率模型(RJ模型),當作點過程中的條件強度函數(conditional intensity function),並利用台灣過去(集集主震發生之前)十筆餘震序列當作早期地震資料,決定模型參數之先驗分配(prior distribution),然後針對集集餘震序列,使用馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅(Markov Chain Monte Carlo)方法衍生近似的聯合後驗分配,進行經驗貝氏分析(empirical bayes analysis),藉以評估集集餘震時間風險。最後,利用空間格點(spatial-grid)法,在每一個距離20公里的格點上,利用此一經驗貝氏分析計算對應的餘震發生機率,藉以探討集集餘震的時空風險。 In point process,we use RJ model as conditional intensity function,and use bayes analysis method to evaluate the time-space risk of chi-chi aftershocks.
    Appears in Collections:[統計研究所] 博碩士論文

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