| 摘要: | 由於風力發電與太陽光電發電的裝置容量將占所有再生能源的80%以上(經濟部能源局2016 我國再生能源發展政策)，在未來供電系統上扮演重要的角色，因此本研究以此二種能源為主，評估此二種能源可以在未來供電系統上扮演怎樣的角色，探討未來再生能源(風能、太陽能)是否可以成為台灣穩定的電力來源。
本研究以WRF模式模擬2030年風場狀況，再將風場模擬結果以Windographer計算2030年之離岸風力發電量與發電時間分布，在2030年離岸風力發電的預計年發電量為11343百萬度，其中在冬、夏季的月平均發電量分別為1000至1500百萬度及500至600百萬度。在一天當中的小時變化，離岸風力發電在一天當中的發電量較平穩，在午後的發電量較高，小時平均發電量在47萬度左右。在太陽光電的部分，本研究以美國國家航空暨太空總署大氣科學資料中心(NASA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Atmospheric Science Data Center )提供之日照量估算2030年太陽光電發電狀況，再透過裝置容量計算2030年太陽光電的年發電量為11367百萬度，太陽光電在夏月平均發電量可以達到1300百萬度上下，在冬季的月發電量只有約夏季月發電量的一半。在一天當中的小時變化部分，一天當中則在11~14點平均小時發電量最高約為350萬度。
本研究在評估未來電力系統的供需平衡以年發電量、月發電量與小時發電量的角度去評估電力系統是否穩定。根據政府目前的能源政策，在年發電量上，預估年備用容量率可以達到15%以上，月發電量在2019~2024年預估月備用容量率無法達到15%，2024年達到最低(8.8%)，在夏季尖峰小時(下午2~3點)的預估備用容量率，在2017~2030，介於-1%至10%，在2024年之電量不足(預估備用容量率為-0.9%)。
本研究也根據不同的太陽光電與離岸風力發電的工程設置進度分別為25%、50%及75%來討論未來電力系統的可靠度，以年或月的發電量來看，在2024年的預估年/月備用容量率最低，即使當進度為75%時，在2024年的預估月備用容量也僅有7.8% (其他年份的預估月備用容量率皆可達到15%)。以夏季尖峰發電小時(下午2~3點)來探討，進度為25%、50%及75%時預估備用容量率在2017~2030年皆無法達到15%，當進度25%時2021~2024都會有缺電問題(預估備用容量率分別為-1.1%、-2.1%、-1.4%及-6.2%)，當進度為50%時2022與2024有缺電的問題(預估備用容量率分別為-0.7%及-4.4%)，進度為75%時則僅有在2024年有缺電的危機(預估備用容量率為-2.7%)。由此可知再生能源的工程進度事關重大。
若將核能一號、二號、三號發電廠延役，進度為25%、50%或75%，雖然年發電量與月發電量，皆可以達到預估備用容量率15%以上，但夏季尖峰小時發電量，進度為25%時，預估備用容量率介於2~15%，在2017年最低(2.9%)，發展進度50%及75%，僅有2025及2030年超過或接近預估備用容量率15%，其它年份的預估備用容量率介於3~10%。若太陽光電與離岸風力的工程設置如期完成，核能一廠、二廠¬及三廠延役，在夏季尖峰小時發電量僅有2025至2030年達到預估備用容量率15%，其他年份的則介於5~11%。若將核能電廠一、二、三與四號機皆啟用，太陽光電與離岸風力的工程設置也如期完成，夏季尖峰小時發電量在2018與2023~2030年可達預估備用容量率15%，其他年份則介於在12%至14%。因此，另尋除風能及太陽光電之外的再生能源或是使用核電，才能確保2030年前發電來源不虞匱乏。
;The capacity of wind power and solar photovoltaic power will account for more than 80% of all renewable energy in 2030, according to the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy 2016 renewable energy development policy. These two renewable energies will play an important role in the future power supply system. Therefore, the aim of this study is to assess the role of these two energy sources and to explore whether wind and solar power can become a stable source of electricity for Taiwan in the future power supply systems.
In this study, the WRF model was first used to simulate the wind field in 2030. The simulation results were then used to calculate the magnitude and spatial distribution of offshore wind power generation in 2030 by using Windographer software. The estimated annual generation of offshore wind power by 2030 is 11343 GWh, of which the average monthly power generation in winter and summer is 1000 to 1500 GWh and 500 to 600 GWh, respectively. In the course of a day, the hourly change in wind power generated by off-shore wind power was relatively steady. In the afternoon, the wind power generation was high, with an average generating capacity of 470 MWh. For solar photovoltaic, this study estimates the solar photovoltaic power generation in 2030 by the solar radiation data provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The estimated annual generation of solar photovoltaic power in 2030 is 11367 GWh, the average generating capacity of solar photovoltaic in the summer months can reach 1300 GWh. In winter months the solar power generation is only about half of that in summer months. For the hourly variation in the day, the solar power generation reaches to the maximum of about 3.5 GWh during 11 a.m.- 2 p.m.
This study evaluates the stability of the power system in terms of annual, monthly, and hourly power generation and assesses the balance of future supply and demand of power systems. According to the current energy policy of the government, the estimated annual percent reserve margin (PRM) can reach 15% or more in annual power generation. The monthly estimated PRM cannot reach 15% in 2019-2024, especially only 8.8% in 2024 , estimated PRM during summer rush hours, 2 to 3 p.m., ranging from -1% to 10% between 2017 and 2030 and below zero in 2024 ,estimated percent reserve margin of -0.9 %.
This study also discusses the stability of future power systems based on the progress of solar photovoltaic and offshore wind power projects set at 25%, 50% and 75%, respectively. In terms of annual or monthly power generation, the estimated annual and monthly PRM are the lowest in 2024, even at 75%, estimated monthly percent reserve margin in 2024 is only 7.8%, estimated monthly PRM for other years are up to 15%. In the summer rush hours, 2 to 3p.m., for the progress of 25%, 50%, and 75% the estimated PRM in 2017-2030 cannot reach 15%. When the progress of 25%, there will be power shortage problems in 2021-2024, estimated PRM of -1.1%, -2.1%, -1.4% and -6.2%. When the progress is 50%, the 2022 and 2024 have a power shortage problem, estimated PRM are -0.7% and -4.4%, respectively. At 75%, there is only a shortage of electricity in 2024, estimated PRM of -2.7%. This shows how important the completion of renewable energy project is.
If the first, second, and third nuclear power plants extended service to 2030, the estimated annual or monthly PRM can still reach 15% no matter the of progress of renewable energy projects is 25%, 50% or 75%. However, when we consider the summer rush hour at the progress of 25%, the estimated PRM ranged from 2% to 15%, lowest, 2.9%, in 2017, only exceeding or approaching 15% at progress of 50% and 75%, in 2025 and 2030, and between 3 ~ 10% in other years. If the solar photovoltaic and offshore wind projects are completed on schedule, plus the first, second, and third nuclear power plants extended service to 2030, the hourly PRM can reach 15% during summer rush hours from 2025 to 2030 and from 5 to 11% for other years. If the first, second, third, and fourth nuclear power plants are enabled during 2017-2030 plus solar photovoltaic and offshore wind engineering settings are completed on schedule, the estimated summer rush hour PRM is up to 15% in 2018 and 2023-2030 and range from 12% to 14% in other years. Therefore, in addition to wind energy and solar photovoltaic, looking for the other renewable energy besides or using nuclear power will ensure sufficiency of power generation before 2030. |
