鐵路平交道向來是鐵路安全防護的弱點，台鐵平交道事故死亡人數佔總系統事故死亡人數比率高達72.5%，在台鐵現存的三種平交道中，以第三種甲種平交道（簡稱三甲）的平均事故率為最高，其中「用路人搶越」占平交道事故原因比例達73.5%，顯見平交道事故的發生在人為因子上有很大的關聯性。 當用路人搶越平交道時，即有發生事故的可能性，在無先進偵測系統的情況下，列車司機員僅能憑目視判斷前方平交道的狀況，一旦發現前方有障礙物存在，列車往往無法完全停車而釀成事故。倘若列車司機員可透過先進偵測系統，預先知道前方平交道有障礙物出現，提早緊軔的時機，在有足夠距離的情況下，列車可於平交道前停住；在沒有足夠距離的情況下，亦可降低列車撞擊障礙物的的力道。 本研究透過實際調查的方法，針對國內的平交道進行參數的設定及模式的修正，冀能找出適用於國內的違規搶越平交道機率模式，並利用上述模式，結合車輛通過平交道時間之機率模型，計算搶越車輛出現在平交道上時，列車司機員採取緊軔動作之列車位置，以搶越車輛通過時間大於列車到達平交道時間作為肇事機制，列車重量與列車到達平交道末速平方作為肇事嚴重程度之判斷依據，比較先進偵測系統裝設前後，肇事機率與肇事嚴重程度的變化，以作為主管機關在降低平交道事故上的參考。 Level-crossing have been the underbelly of railway’s safeguard. The rate of the death population of TRA’s level-crossing accident in total system accident occupies 72.5 percent. The average rate of level-crossing accident in Third-A-type is the highest of TRA’s level-crossing at the present day. The main reason is “Vehicle driver trespassing”, and the rate occupies 73.5 percent in all level-crossing accident reasons. There are obvious relatives of level-crossing accident frequency and human behavior. When driver trespasses level-crossing, there is the possible that happens to the accident. The accident should be avoided if train driver can be given immediate information under enough brake distance. However, besides trespass behavior in the accident occurrence, we must consider if the vehicle can leave the level-crossing to keep the level-crossing empty before the train arrives the level-crossing. Alternatively, the train driver’s stopping sight distance is one of all variable that affects train stopping. The thesis combine the probability of trespassing level-crossing in warning time, probability of across on the level-crossing, the train position when driver brake and use foreign related model. The plan will use actual investigation method to emendation model and to set parameters in the model according intestine case. We hope to find the behavior model of trespassing level-crossing that can match intestine case and add the concept of advance level-crossing detector. Then we will compare the system effect for level-crossing accident to provide our conclusion.
