| 摘要: | 航班經常遭受突發的擾動事件影響，導致無法依原訂的班表準時起降，造成該航機後續銜接任務以及後面航班連帶受到影響。台灣位處於西太平洋颱風侵襲路徑區，因此以颱風擾動事件最為頻繁且影響甚鉅。實務上，在面對颱風擾動時，航空公司多以人為經驗並佐以氣象預報資料研擬航班的重新指派計畫，然而此作法不僅無效率且缺乏整體航空網路考量，僅能獲得可行但策略不佳的結果。以往航班排程文獻，多為規劃階段問題，此種規劃問題與具時效性的擾動事件之即時調整問題不同。而針對臨時性擾動事件的航班即時調整相關文獻，除了忽略旅客疏運部分，在擾動時間上則簡化為一確定時間，然而颱風的擾動時間為不確定，因此其模式難以直接應用於本研究問題。緣此，本研究考量颱風擾動時段為明確與不確定的情況下，以總營運成本最小化為目標，發展確定性與隨機性兩種航班重新指派模式，提供航空公司決策者在面臨颱風擾動事件時，進行航班調整之參考。
本研究分為兩個部分。第一部分中，根據航空公司航班重新指派實務營運情況及限制，構建颱風擾動時段明確下之確定性航班重新指派模式；第二部分中，則針對颱風擾動時段在不明確的情形下，構建隨機性航班重新指派模式。此外，此兩部分的模式亦分別進行多階段動態決策測試，以顯示兩模式之彈性與實用性。本研究利用網路流動技巧及數學規劃方法構建所有模式，並加上實際營運時的相關限制。此等模式可定式為一含額外限制之整數網路流動問題，屬NP-hard問題，當實務問題過大時，難以在合理時間內求得最佳解。因此，本研究根據問題特性，以分割再組合策略，發展分割式啟發解演算法，以有效地求解大型實務問題。此兩模式均利用C++程式語言撰寫，並以CPLEX數學規劃軟體求解。最後，進行實際範例測試並提出結論與建議。;Flight schedules are often affected by unexpected interruption events, causing aircraft to be unable to take off or land on time, also resulting in connection delays as well as later flights. Taiwan is located in the Western Pacific on the path of typhoons, so one of the worst and the most frequent interruption events are typhoons. In practice, when it is known that a typhoon is approaching, decision makers make adjustments to flight schedules and fleet routes based on experience and the aviation weather forecast data, which is neither efficient nor effective. Moreover, the manual adjustment of airline network operations may not be considered systematically, usually leading to feasible but inferior reassignments. The primary focus in past studies of flight scheduling problems has been on the planning stage. However the planning problem, which does not need to be solved immediately, is different from real-time flight schedule adjustment problems in response to typhoon events. Although there have been some studies discussing real-time flight schedule adjustment problems, the problem of passenger transportation has been neglected and the duration of the determined disruption has been over-simplified. In fact, the duration of typhoon is uncertain, so the current models cannot be applied. Therefore, in this study, we develop a deterministic flight rescheduling model and a stochastic flight rescheduling model, aimed at the minimization of the total operating cost. These models should be useful tools to assist decision makers to make adjustment to flight schedules and fleet routes in response to typhoon disruption events.
This dissertation is divided into two parts. In the first essay, we consider the practices, current operations and limitations of an airline carrier for the construction of a deterministic flight rescheduling model dependent upon a precise typhoon disruption period. In the second essay, we construct a stochastic flight rescheduling model given an uncertain typhoon disruption period. In addition, a dynamic application using a multi-stage decision-making process is adopted to illustrate the flexibility and practicality of the two models. Network flow techniques and mathematical programming are utilized to develop all the models, coupled with the constraints used in practice. All the models are formulated as integer network flow problems with side constraints, and are characterized as NP-hard. To efficiently solve the realistically large problems that occur in practice, a solution algorithm based on the divide and conquer approach is developed. The models are written using the C++ computer language, coupled with the CPLEX mathematical programming solver, to solve the problems. Finally, numerical tests are performed, and some conclusions and suggestions for future research are given. |
