摘要 本文應用具AR(1)誤差之長時間追蹤資料迴歸模型分析中央氣象局收集到在台北和台南測站自1961年至1994年所觀測到之145個颱風，及台北測站自1995年至2000年所觀測到之31個颱風降雨量的相關資料。與過去的方法相較，本文考慮的長時期追蹤資料迴歸模型對颱風進入北緯22度至26度和東經120度至125度間某時段後之降雨量預測與實際降雨量間之均方誤差較小，相關係數較高。另外本文並嘗試考慮降雨量之區間預測，根據上述資料所得預測區間亦有令人滿意的準確度。 Abstract We employ the regression models for longitudinal data with AR(1) error vectors to analyze the typhoon rainfall data at Taipei. The data were collected by the Central Weather Bureau that contain the 145 typhoons data from 1961 to 1994 measured at Taipei and Tainan, respectively. Compared with the existing methods, the regression models for longitudinal data yielded smaller mean squared errors and longer correlation coefficients between predicted rainfalls and the real observations. In addition, we also try to make predictive intervals for the rainfalls and the results are quite accurate.
