免費公車之研究----以桃園市為例; Benefical analysis of Free bus ----Taoyuan city is chosen for case study.

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题名:	免費公車之研究----以桃園市為例;Benefical analysis of Free bus ----Taoyuan city is chosen for case study.
作者:	江秉釗;Ping-Chao Chiang
贡献者:	土木工程研究所
关键词:	二元羅吉特;消費者剩餘;對等變量;binary Logit model;consumer’s surplus;equivalent variate
日期:	2002-07-05
上传时间:	2009-09-18 17:12:01 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學圖書館
摘要:	近年來陸續有鄉鎮市編列公務預算施行免費公車措施，但各縣市在免費公車實施後卻鮮少針對此措施是否具有經濟效益進行驗證；因此本研究將以桃園市作為研究對象並進行分析，以瞭解此措施對個體運具選擇是否會造成改變及其所帶來的影響為何。本研究採用個體選擇模式中的二元羅吉特模式，針對免費公車引進前後，分別構建桃園市用路人運具選擇效用模型。同時蒐集模式相關文獻，以利問卷設計時所欲擇取之解釋變數，作為效用函數建立之基礎。為了解桃園市用路者運具選擇之偏好結構，將藉由顯示性偏好設計問卷，並採用電話隨機調查及擇基調查的方式蒐集資料，以取得校估模式參數所需資料。所得到的資料，透過套裝軟體(TSP)對模式參數進行校估，以構建個體運具選擇模式，並進一步探討其解釋能力與運具選擇行為。最後將個體資料帶入，利用使用者效益衡量指標－對等變量與消費者剩餘進行衡量，將所得到的成果，歸納出具體的結論與建議，以作為未來相關研究之參考。 Free bus transportation service has been recently provided by many local governments in Taiwan. However, no theoretical background has been proven to advocate this policy from the economic point of view. To explore the net benefit that might be brought up by this policy, Taoyuan city is chosen for case study. A binary Logit model is accommodated to imitate modal choice behavior of travelers. The perceived utility of travelers is constructed as a linear function of a set of explanatory variables. The associated parameters were calibrated with the TSP software package by the questionnaire data collected from either field survey or phone interview. The statistics show that the goodness of fit is fairly well for the model. The output of the model is then extensively analyzed to rationalize traveler’s behavior. The quantitative indices of equivalent variate and consumer’s surplus were also computed to measure the economic benefit accrued to the travelers and compared with the corresponding budget. Though cost effective is not justified at this preliminary study, more studies must be carried out before conclusive remarks can be drawn for free bus transportation service. In the end some suggestions for future research are given.
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