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    题名: 罷工對需求面造成的影響-以中華航空為例
    作者: 王弈翔;Wang, Yi-Hsiang
    贡献者: 產業經濟研究所
    关键词: 罷工;中華航空;需求面;Strikes;China Airlines;Demand side
    日期: 2018-07-27
    上传时间: 2018-08-31 14:34:19 (UTC+8)
    出版者: 國立中央大學
    摘要: 中華航空在經歷了民國105年空服員歷史上的首次罷工後,為社會帶來了許多層面的議題,其中包括了導致這次罷工事件的背景、整起罷工事件的過程和後續帶來的影響,而本研究關注整起罷工事件對於中華航空需求面的影響,也就是說這起罷工事件,是否會影響到乘客以後對於搭乘中華航空的意願,以國外航空為例,過於頻繁的罷工,會導致乘客許多的不便,進而避免選擇這間航空公司,那在台灣,不同的環境下,情況是否會相同,導致中華航空需求面的負面影響,就是本研究的研究方向。
    因此,本研究將探討罷工事件對需求面的影響並以中華航空為例,而在這勞資糾紛下,政府應該積極扮演協調的角色,避免發生罷工,一旦交通運輸業發生罷工,必定造成嚴重的衝擊,可是這一切還是發生了,所以在桃園市政府拒絕仲裁這一方面是值得討論的,最後以國內航空業角度來看,探討中華航空的罷工事件是否間接影響到長榮航空,長榮航空是否因此得利等方面。
    本研究將以中華航空載客率(月資料)做為應變數,來代表需求面的變化,研究期間為民國89年至民國106年,採用自我迴歸模型來處理時間序列資料,最適落後期為2期,主要的解釋變數為各項影響載客率之事件虛擬變數,來探討事件如何影響需求面。
    觀察回歸結果後發現,罷工事件不管是短期或是長期的影響皆不顯著,其中的原因包括國內罷工頻率極低、國內航空業的運載量有限和特定族群之僵固性,這種種原因也導致了長榮航空在這次的罷工事件無顯著的影響,畢竟跟國外相比,罷工發生的可能性微乎其微,單單一次的罷工事件,很難顯著的影響到需求面有顯著的變化。
    ;After experiencing the first strike in 2016, China Airlines brought many issues to the society, including the background of the strike, the process of the strike and the impact of the follow-up. This study focused on the impact of the strike on the demand side of China Airlines. That is to say, whether this strike will affect the passengers’ willingness to take China Airlines in the future. Taking foreign aviation as an example, frequent strikes will lead to a lot of inconvenience to passengers, and thus avoid choosing this airline. Whether the impact be the same as foreign country in Taiwan is the main discussion of this research.
    Therefore, this study explored the impact of strikes on demand side and took China Airlines as an example. Under this labor dispute, the government should actively play a coordinating role to avoid strikes. Once the transportation industry strikes, it will definitely cause serious problems. The issue of Taoyuan City government refused to arbitrate was worth discussed. Finally, from the perspective of the domestic aviation industry, whether the strike of China Airlines indirectly affected the EVA Air.
    This study used monthly data of China Airlines passenger load factor as dependent variable to represent the change of demand. The study periods were from 2000 to 2017. The autoregressive model was used with time series data and the optimal lag period was in the second period. The main independent variables were the dummy variables of the incidents which affecting the passenger load factor, in order to explore how the demand side was affected by the incidents.
    Observing the regression results, it was found that the strike were not significant in either short-term or long-term. The results might be related to the low frequency of domestic strikes, the limited carrying capacity of the domestic aviation industry, and the rigidity of specific groups. EVA Air also had no significant influence due to these reasons. After all, compared with foreign countries, the possibility of strikes occur in Taiwan was very low. The demand was difficult to significantly affected by one strike.
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