颱風大小對上層海洋降溫作用、颱風強度變化以及氣候變遷的影響;Impact of Typhoon Size on Upper-Ocean Cooling, Typhoon Intensification, and Climate Change

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題名:	颱風大小對上層海洋降溫作用、颱風強度變化以及氣候變遷的影響;Impact of Typhoon Size on Upper-Ocean Cooling, Typhoon Intensification, and Climate Change
作者:	潘任飛
貢獻者:	國立中央大學水文與海洋科學研究所
關鍵詞:	颱風大小;海水面降溫作用;颱風強度變化;氣候變遷;typhoon size;sea surface temperature cooling;typhoon intensification;climate change
日期:	2018-12-19
上傳時間:	2018-12-20 11:28:03 (UTC+8)
出版者:	科技部
摘要:	由於颱風和海洋的劇烈交互作用，往往在颱風的路徑上引起明顯的海水面溫度下降(SST cooling)。這個由颱風引起的獨特海洋降溫現象無論對颱風本身強度，海洋以及氣候變遷都有深遠的影響。因此，海洋表面冷卻作用是研究海氣交互作用上非常重要的一環。然而，海洋和大氣之間的交互作牽涉很多非常複雜的過程，特別是在颱風的惡劣條件下，要研究這些過程非常困難。過去有研究指出海表降溫跟颱風特徵（如強度、移動速度和颱風大小）和海洋條件有關。而目前大部分的研究主要是針對颱風的強度、移動速度和上層海洋熱力結構去探討海水面溫度下降的成因和機制。相對之下，甚少研究關注颱風大小對海表面冷卻作用所帶來的影響。颱風大小這個潛在的重要因子一直被忽略。2010年在西北太平洋生成的超級颱風“梅姬”提供一個非常鮮明的例子。梅姬颱風的大小在她的生命週期中發生極大的變化。梅姬颱風在南中國海突然增大，是在菲律賓海時的兩倍以上。從衛星的海表面溫度影像可以明顯看出梅姬颱風在南中國海產生強烈而廣泛的海水面降溫。因此，到底梅姬颱風的大小變化對海水面冷卻作用的貢獻是多少？如果颱風大小是重要的因子，在估計海水冷卻作用的時候，我們必須要把颱風大小的影響納入考量。通過了解和量化颱風大小對海水冷卻的影響，未來可能有助進一步改善颱風強度預報的精準度。本計畫為三年期計畫，第一年將詳細分析梅姬颱風個案，確認颱風大小對海水面冷卻作用的貢獻與他們之間的關係，同時亦會討論後續對海洋能量輸送和梅姬颱風強度的影響。第二年將擴大探討全球颱風大小對各自海域海水面冷卻作用的影響，了解海水冷卻面積是否和颱風大小有關，以及進一步討論對海洋熱輸送的影響。第三年會著重在未來颱風大小的變化，利用IPCC的CMIP5耦合模式結果去估計未來颱風大小變化，接著討論其變化對海水面冷卻作用以及後續對颱風強度的影響。 ;Typhoon-induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling is a pronounced evidence of the extreme interaction between typhoon and underlying ocean. Due to its importance and implication in typhoon intensity, ocean dynamics and even climate change, SST cooling has been the heart of research in air-sea interaction. Although the complexity of the air-sea processes, especially under typhoon condition, after several decades of efforts some dominant factors controlling the magnitude of SST cooling have been identified, and the related physical processes are increasingly clear. It is widely accepted that the extent of SST cooling highly depends on typhoon characteristics and ocean conditions. However, only several well-known factors such as typhoon surface wind, typhoon traveling speed and ocean thermal structure receive most of the attention in current studies. There has been little study devoted to quantify the typhoon size effect, though it is frequently indicated as a curial factor on SST cooling. Based on satellite observations, it is found that super typhoon Megi (2010) experienced a significant size change in her life cycle, which appears coincident with the SST cooling patterns. Therefore, it is of great interest and indeed necessary to evaluate the relation between the typhoon size and SST cooling, so as to increase our understanding of such cooling mechanism and eventually improve the typhoon intensity forecast, which is left far behind the track forecast. This is a 3-year proposal. The first year will investigate the size effect in Megi-induced SST cooling in detail, including the relationship between typhoon size and cooling, how it would affect typhoon energy supply and the subsequent typhoon intensity change. The second year will explore the areal extent of SST cooling in relation to the averaged typhoon size in different basins, and the issues related to the heat exchange and transport in the ocean. The last year will focus on the typhoon size variation in the future climate using the state-of-the-art IPCC's model projections, as well as to see if such change in size would impact on SST cooling and thus typhoon activity.
關聯:	財團法人國家實驗研究院科技政策研究與資訊中心
顯示於類別:	[水文與海洋科學研究所] 研究計畫

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