本研究將以三年的時間，進行序率孔彈性理論模式之建立與數值分析程式之發展，以改善過去地層下陷分析中，因參數變異性造成模式不確定性過高問題；以及僅考量水力傳導係數單一隨機變數，忽略力學特性對土水耦合系統之影響。第一年將建立序率孔彈性理論條件模擬模式與其數值分析程式，以降低因水力傳導係數變異數過大引起之高度不確定性；第二年進行雙隨機變數序率孔彈性理論模式與其數值分析程式之發展，以評估水力與力學特性擾動對土水耦合系統之影響；第三年將前兩年建立之理論模式與數值分析程式做結合，應用到地層下陷之實際案例中，進行地下水與地層下陷之模擬與分析，以提供台灣地下水資源管理與評估之使用與參考。 ;This three years project will developed advanced stochastic poroelastic models and focus on dealing with two problems: the high uncertainty situation due to the high variance of the measured hydraulic conductivity and the single random variable model which ignores the influence of mechanic property in the coupled solid and fluid system. This study will develop a conditional model and a numerical code to solve the stochastic poroelastic problem in the first year. The conditional model can be used to mitigate the uncertainty due to the high variance of the measured hydraulic conductivity. In the second year, a double-random variable model and code will be developed by using both the first-order second-moment method and the Monte Carlo simulation. The double-random variable model can discuss the perturbations of both the hydraulic and mechanic properties in the coupled solid and fluid system. The third year study will combined the former two models and apply the developed model and code to the land subsidence problem, which is a key problem in water resources management in Taiwan.
