台灣極淺層最強地震圓弧交叉與後續強震之關聯(2004年至2015年)

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Title:	台灣極淺層最強地震圓弧交叉與後續強震之關聯(2004年至2015年)
Authors:	林冠宏;Lin, Kuan-Hong
Contributors:	土木工程學系
Keywords:	最強地震圓弧交叉;最強地震圓弧雙交叉;最強地震圓弧雙凸交叉
Date:	2019-07-23
Issue Date:	2019-09-03 12:10:09 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本研究於台灣中央氣象局地震資料庫擷取地震資料，再從中擷取西元 2001年至2016 年之地震目錄，利用 MATLAB 程式尋找在三年內較大規模的地震例如 M≧6.0且以深度範圍在30公里以內之地震繪製地震分布圖，嘗試從地震分布圖中找出由距離近似均勻之 5 個或以上之地震事件所組成的弧線，且觀察所找到兩條弧線的交叉型態，如無法找到，則將規模 M 慢慢下修直至找出地震圓弧交叉，此交叉我們稱之為「最強地震圓弧交叉」，若此時雙弧之交叉點有兩個，則稱為「最強地震圓弧雙交叉」。「最強地震圓弧交叉」發生後三年間，在交叉點範圍半徑 70公里內發生規模 M≧5.7 之大地震機率約有95.24 %，至於發生規模 M≧6 之大地震機率約有85.71 %；在交叉點範圍半徑 90公里內發生規模 M≧5.7 之大地震機率約有100 %，至於發生規模 M≧6 之大地震機率約有95.24 %，可知本研究對於未來地震之預測有一定的參考價值。 ;This study collected seismic data from the Seismic Data Base of the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan, and then extracted the catalogue of the earthquakes from 2001 to 2016. Using the MATLAB program, we searched for events with M≧6.0 in 4 years and depths less than 30 kilometers. And then we draw a seismic distribution map, and attempt to find an arc composed of 5 or more seismic events with nearly uniform distances from the seismic distribution map, and look for the intersection pattern of the two arcs. If it cannot be found, the scale M will be slowly decrease until an intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes are found. This intersection is called the “strongest intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes”. If there are two intersection points then it is called the “strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes”. In the three years after the occurrence of the strongest intersection , the probability of a strong earthquake with a magnitude of M≧5.7 occurring inside a circular region with a radius of 70 km arround the intersection point is about 95.24 %, and the probability of a strong earthquake with a magnitude of M≧6 is about 85.71 %; The probability of a strong earthquake with a magnitude of M≧5.7 within a radius of 90 km is about 100 %. As for the probability of a strong earthquake with a magnitude of M≧6 inside a circular region with a radius of 90 km is about 95.24 %, it is belived that this study may have some value for future earthquake prediction.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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