本研究運用最強地震圓弧交叉的概念去預測未來發生的強烈地震事件，地震圓弧為從地震目錄中規模6以上之地震逐步往下篩選，直到出現五點均勻排列成弧形之事件，而本研究即是找出最強地震圓弧的交叉並對其交叉點附近發生之後續事件做分析及統計，試圖尋找其中之其關聯。 之前利用應力集中概念、及岩石中張力裂縫分布模式，發展出地震圓弧交叉分析方法，試圖尋找由地震事件所組成的地震圓弧交叉及地震圓弧雙交叉，李顯智老師稱之為最強地震圓弧交叉及最強雙凸地震圓弧交叉，再針對地震圓弧交會的應力集中相互作用範圍作統計與分析。 本次論文針對日本地區，而地震目錄的來源為日本氣象廳，分析時間為1995年至2004年之地震事件，其結果共發現13個最強交叉與7個最強地震圓弧雙交叉，且每一個案例在距離交叉點最小弧長之四分之一內，未來三年間皆有至少一個規模5.7以上之強烈地震發生，讓我們更加確定最強地震圓弧交叉與強烈地震之間的關聯性。 ;The primary goal of this research is to use the concept of the strongest intersections of the circular arcs of earthquakes to predict the future strong earthquakes. Filtering down the seismic data through earthquakes of magnitude 6 ,when five points are approximately uniformly distributed along an arc ,it is called the strongest circular arcs of earthquakes. This thesis aims to find out the strongest intersections of the circular arcs of earthquakes and use statistics to analyze the strong events happen near the intersections, and try to find the connection between them. The analysis of the intersections of the circular arcs of earthquakes was developed from the concept of stress concentration in crust and the strongest intersection of the circular arcs of earthquakes is named by Professor Hin-Chi Lei. The purpose of the study focuses on the earthquakes in Japan area, from 1995 to 2004, recorded in seismic data of Japan Meteorological Agency. We have found 13 strongest intersections and 7 strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes . For every case , in the circular predicted region with the radius equalto the quarter of the smaller arc length of the intersections, at lease one magnitude 5.7 earthquake can be found within 3 years after the formation of the strongest intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes .This result confirms the connection between the strongest intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes and the strong earthquakes happened after them.
