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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/80259


    Title: 絕緣塗料產品銷售預測之研究-以Z公司為例;Product Sales Forecasting for Insulating Coating Case Study of the Company Z
    Authors: 余思怡;Yu, Szu-Yi
    Contributors: 工業管理研究所在職專班
    Keywords: 絕緣塗料;銷售預測;迴歸分析;insulating coating;sales forecast;regression analysis
    Date: 2019-06-17
    Issue Date: 2019-09-03 12:26:50 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: 國立中央大學
    Abstract: 銷售預測的精確有助於企業營運績效的提升,銷售預測的精確與否亦攸關整體供應鏈的效率。企業藉由可靠的預測將供應鏈的各種流程活動進行整合與管理,減少供應鏈上帶來的長鞭效應(Bullwhip Effect),從產銷協同作業使得供應鏈更加具彈性及靈活性,最終目的是期望能達成客戶滿意的服務水準。
    本研究係以Z公司為研究對象,以計量方法下的迴歸分析找出最具顯著相關性的自變數並建立絕緣塗料產品銷售預測的迴歸模型,後續再對整體迴歸模型做顯著性檢定、共線性檢定、變異數分析及殘差分析,以評估預測模型的配適程度。
    從研究結果顯示,此銷售預測模型可得知成本面因素並無顯著影響,而在經濟指數「台灣製造業銷售指數」;製造業採購經理人指數的「人力僱用數量指數」、「原物料價格指數」、「新增出口訂單指數」;下游應用市場因素「漆包線銷售量」是具顯著性,在迴歸模型中上述5項變數對絕緣塗料產品銷售量是具有解釋能力。


    關鍵字:絕緣塗料、銷售預測、迴歸分析
    ;The goal of the current thesis is to study how sales forecasts can predict and contributes to the improvement of business performance, and the data accuracy of sales forecasts relating to the overall efficiency of the its supply chain. The Z company integrates and manages various process activities within the supply chain through a reliable forecasting source, which can reduce the Bullwhip Effect brought by the supply chain, and makes the supply chain data more flexible and synergizing between production and market sales. The aim is to achieve a level of service that is satisfactory to the customer.
    This research is based on Z company as the research subject. Using the regression analysis under the quantitative method which is used to define the most significant independent correlation variable and establishing its regression model from the sales forecast of insulating coating products, and then make a significant verification of the overall regression model. Utilizing significant test, collinearity test, ANOVA and residual analysis to conclude a predictive model.
    The results of the study, can be seen that the cost side factor has no significant impact, but in the economic index "Taiwan Index of Producer’s shipment for Manufacturing" the Manufacturing purchasing manager′s index (PMI), "Employment Index", " Material Price Index” and “New Order Export Index”; the downstream application market factor “The sales of Enamelled Wires” is significant. Based on the analysis of the regression model, the above five variables have a significant impact on the sales volume for the insulating coating products.

    Keywords: insulating coating, sales forecast, regression analysis
    Appears in Collections:[工業管理研究所碩士在職專班 ] 博碩士論文

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