全球暖化伴隨氣候變遷所造成極端天氣事件發生頻率增加是目前人類所面對不可迴避的威脅。本計畫擬以三年時間，探討全球暖化對熱帶地區水循環之影響。第一年利用HiRAM高空間解析度大氣模式(HiRAM)模擬之月資料，分析全球暖化下熱帶區域降水和對流(強度和結構)變化；第二年使用CMIP6氣候模式模擬之系集平均資料重複前一年工作，並比較兩者差異；第三年利用HiRAM和CMIP6模擬之日資料，分析全球暖化下，熱帶強降水(≧90百分位)和極端強降水(≧99百分位)發生頻率之變化。釐清上述降水變化之物理過程(機制)，如:雲-輻射效應、大氣穩定度效應、對流結構變化，將是此研究計劃之重點。 ;The human beings nowadays have faced an inevitable threat about the increased extreme weather events due to climate changes under the influenced of global warming. In this three-year project, we propose to investigate the impacts of global warming on the tropical hydrological cycle. In the first year, we analyze changes in tropical convection (intensity and structure) and precipitation under global warming using monthly data from HiRAM (Hi-Resolution Atmospheric Model) simulations. In the second year, we repeat the above analysis but using ensemble-mean data from CMIP6 model simulations and compare the differences between HiRAM and CMIP6 simulations. In the third year, we detect changes in heavy rainfall (≧90 percentile) and extremely heavy rainfall (≧95 percentile) events using daily data from both HiRAM and CMIP6 simulations. Physical mechanisms attributing to the aforementioned changes will be particularly emphasized in this research project.
